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Thursday, January 20, 2005
How Can We Leave!
I don’t know how we can leave Iraq any time soon unless we accept a Civil War. This election is considered false without any real consideration of the local scene. Trying to remake Iraq into our image is stepping into a quagmire. What we may consider intolerance is not the prevailing mode in Iraq. We deplore a violation of the rights of women which are not so viewed by the Iraqis. Rule by the Book is the dominant philosophy of those people.
Past history has been one of continued betrayals of local aspirations by Western powers. Starting with the mission of T. E. Lawrence the West betrayed the Arab cause of independence. Before that it was geopolitical as the path to India. Then it was and still is oil. The current administrations claims that our invasion is for installing democracy is simply not believed in the Arab world. Not surprising as a large percentage of Americans do not believe our aims are altruistic.
So the theocrats will dominate the scene. Shias will prevail with Iran in the background. Sunnis will be disenfranchised. Kurds will be betrayed again and feel their independence threatened. If we leave Civil War is certain. It may happen even if we stay. The Bush hubris will not carry the day.
I confess being very suprised that there is no consideration of dividing the country. Kurds, Shias, Sunnis could have their own countries or a separation in a federation. It might be worthwhile to study the Ottoman Empire approach. We should recall that Iraq was a cartographers creation. As was the partition of India and at what happened there.
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