[Mb-civic] Bush Ohio Vote Closer

[Michael Butler]

Also see below:     
NBC Makes Unprecedented Downward Correction in Latino Support for Bush    €

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    Bush's Ohio Win Was Closer Than Thought
    By John Seewer 
    The Associated Press

     Friday 03 December 2004

     Toledo, Ohio - President Bush's victory over John Kerry in Ohio was
closer than the unofficial election night totals showed, but the change is
not enough to trigger an automatic recount, according to county-by-county
results provided to The Associated Press on Friday.

     Bush's margin of victory in the state that put him over the top in his
re-election bid will be about 119,000 votes, which is smaller than the
unofficial margin of 136,000, the county election board figures showed. That
means Kerry drew closer by about 17,000 votes.

     The margin shrank primarily because of the addition of provisional
ballots that were not counted on Election Day and were not included in the
unofficial tally. Overseas ballots also were added to the count in all 88
counties.

     And about a quarter of Kerry's gain was the result of an electronic
voting system glitch that gave Bush 3,893 extra votes in a suburban Columbus
precinct. The extra votes had been included in the unofficial count, but
aren't part of the official tally.

     Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell will certify the results Monday.

     The president's margin of victory was about 2 percent, not close enough
to require an automatic recount. That happens only when the difference is
0.25 percent or less.

     Bush beat Kerry nationally by 3 percentage points.

     Out of 156,977 provisional ballots checked, 121,598 were pronounced
valid and were accepted, meaning about one in five was thrown out, according
to an AP tabulation. Provisional voters are cast when poll workers cannot
immediately confirm if a voter was properly registered.

     How many provisional ballots were cast for Bush and how many were cast
for Kerry were not known, because most county election boards did not break
down the votes that way. Most boards combined provisional ballots with
overseas ballots and those cast on Election Day, then counted the entire
batch to reach their final tallies.

     The Kerry campaign and two third-party candidates are seeking a recount
in Ohio. The Green and Libertarian parties said they have raised enough
money to cover the cost. The Kerry campaign said it is not disputing the
outcome of the presidential race but wants to make sure any recount is "done
accurately and completely."

     A recount probably won't occur until after Ohio's electors meet Dec.
13.

     The narrowing of Bush's margin only increases the possibility that the
election results could be changed, the Green Party said. "Who knows what
else will turn up when we examine the discarded ballots?" Green spokesman
Blair Bobier asked.

     Some county leaders think spending an estimated $1.5 million on a
recount would be a waste of money.

     "If we thought the recount would change the outcome of the election, we
might feel differently," said Larry Long, executive director of the state's
County Commissioners Association.

   

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    NBC Makes Unprecedented Downward Correction in Latino Support for Bush
    William C. Velasquez Institute

     Friday 03 December 2004
 18-point margin of victory for Democrat Kerry among Hispanics doubles
previous NBC estimates; numbers affirm WCVI criticism of national Exit Poll
figures.

    Washington - In a stunning admission, an elections manager for NBC News
said national news organizations overestimated President George W. Bush's
support among Latino voters, downwardly revising its estimated support for
President Bush to 40 percent from 44 percent among Hispanics, and increasing
challenger John Kerry's support among Hispanics to 58 percent from 53
percent. The revision doubles Kerry's margin of victory among Hispanic
voters from 9 to 18 percent. Ana Maria Arumi, the NBC elections manager also
revised NBC's estimate for Hispanic support for Bush in Texas, revising a
reported 18-point lead for Bush to a 2-point win for Kerry among Hispanics,
a remarkable 20-point turnaround from figures reported on election night.

     The NBC announcement came during a forum with the William C. Velasquez
Institute's president, Antonio Gonzalez, and other Hispanic analysts at the
National Press Club in Washington, D.C., sponsored by Hispanic Link
Newsletter and the National Association of Hispanic Journalists.

     "Latino presidential partisan preferences did not changed significantly
from four years ago," said WCVI's president, Antonio Gonzalez, in his
presentation before the National Association of Hispanic Journalists. "While
there are still differences in the numbers between what the Velasquez
Institute found and the news organizations reported on Election Day, NBC is
doing the right thing by revising its estimates to reflect a more accurate
percentage of support the President received from the Hispanic community."

     Since the Election Day numbers came out, a controversy has existed
between WCVI and exit poll officials. Competing exit polls showed a
significant gap in support among Latinos for President Bush and Senator
Kerry. During his presentation, Gonzalez reviewed the Institute's exit
polling data, which found that President Bush received 33 percent support
among Hispanic voters, roughly the same percentage he received in the 2000
presidential contest against Al Gore (35% to 64%, respectively). Two network
exit surveys reported 44 and 45 percent support for Bush.

     "There is no doubt that some churning of numbers has occurred, meaning
Republicans appear to have made significant gains in Texas and Arizona while
Democrats appear to have made significant gains in Colorado and Florida,"
added Gonzalez. "But the net effect among these respective gains is a
canceling out of one another. Latino voter partisanship has remained
consistent with roughly a 30 point democratic advantage in 2000 and 2004's
presidential elections."

     "But I repeat, NBC has set an example for network poll integrity by
taking a giant step away from the Edison International/Mitofsky election
results, and toward WCVI's findings. For example, today NBC stated that 70%
of its respondents came from non-urban areas and 30% from urban areas, while
acknowledging that 50% of Latino voters come from urban areas. This
admission could explain the difference in their results and WCVI's. They
under-represented Latino urban voters (who are more likely to vote
democratic) and over-represented Latino non-urban votes (who are more likely
to vote republican). We hope the other networks follow suit with more
adjustments in their findings," Gonzalez concluded.

     According to its exit poll survey, the Institute found that Latino
voters supported democratic presidential candidate John Kerry over President
George W. Bush by a margin of 65.4% to 33%. In determining the results for
the presidential race, the WCVI exit survey interviewed 943 respondents in
41 precincts across 11 states on Election Day. The exit surveys were
conducted in the states of Florida, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado,
Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, California, Texas, Illinois, and
Connecticut. These states represent over 80 percent of the national Latino
vote.

     About the Willie C. Velasquez Institute:
    Chartered in 1985, the Willie C. Velasquez Institute is a nonpartisan,
non-profit, Latino-oriented research and policy think tank with offices in
San Antonio, Texas, Los Angeles, California and Miami, Florida. For more
information regarding WCVI, please visit our website at www.wcvi.org.

 

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