[Mb-civic] FW: New Persian Empire: Iran Strengthens Its Hand Amid War On Terror (VERY INTERESTING ANALYSIS)

[Golsorkhi]

------ Forwarded Message
From: Shahla Samii <shahla at thesamiis.com>
Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 20:24:20 -0500
Subject: New Persian Empire: Iran Strengthens Its Hand Amid War On Terror
(VERY INTERESTING ANALYSIS)



New Persian Empire: Iran Strengthens Its Hand Amid War On Terror

News Analysis, Jalal Ghazi,
  Pacific News Service, Dec 10, 2004

Editor's Note: Arab media are tracking Iran's emerging strategic
importance with great interest, watching as the nation skillfully plays
its nuclear and oil cards against U.S. desires for the region.

  Arab media are mesmerized by Iran's ability to outmaneuver the United
States, not just on the nuclear front, but in Iraq as well.

  Some observers believe the only solution to the Iraqi conundrum is to
divide Iraq into three federated states. But because most Iraqis share
the same Shiite faith as the Iranians, sooner or later Iran will extend
its influence over Southern Iraq. Iran could then control a huge part
of the world's fossil fuel resources. If this should happen, the United
States will have no choice but to welcome a "New Persian Empire," as it
did for nuclear-armed enemies the Soviet Union and China.

  No single country has benefited as much from the war on terror as
Iran. America eliminated two of Iran's fiercest enemies, with which
Iran shares long borders to the east and the west: the Taliban in
Afghanistan and Saddam Hussein in Iraq. And because the United States
is bogged down in Iraq, Iran feels free to expand its influence,
developing its nuclear technology and strengthening its economic ties
with China and Europe.

  In Iraq, the Americans routed Iran's Baathist enemies, and empowered
the Iraqi Shiites. After being oppressed for 35 years under Saddam, the
Shiites are now uniting under the roof of what is known in the Arab
world as the "Shiite House." The upcoming Iraqi elections will only
legitimize the role of the interim government, which the Iraqi Shiites
have been controlling since the regime's fall.

  Iran could not agree more with U.S. President George W. Bush's demand
to hold Iraqi elections on Jan. 30, 2005, despite strong reservations
by some Arab countries in the Gulf, which ironically are now accusing
Iran of having common interests with the United States. The
London-based Al-Quds Al-Arabi newspaper published an article titled
"The Lebanon-ization of Iraq," criticizing the upcoming elections and
warning that, should the Iraqi Shiites win illegitimately, the whole
region could ignite in ethnic conflict.

  Arab media have also been suspicious of the relative calm that has
prevailed in Shiite areas in central and southern Iraq since the start
of the U.S. occupation. They also question Iraqi Shiite leader Ali
Sistani's silence toward American military operations in Falluja. Hoda
Husseni, in the Dec. 2 Asharq Al-Awsat, writes, Iran want to open
back-door negotiations with the United States in order to ensure that
the elections take place on time."

  The United States believes that the Iraqi Shiites will not be
controlled by Iran. This is due largely to Ali Sistani's assurances to
the Americans that he rejects establishing a religious state in Iraq
modeled after the one in Iran. Many Arab media are skeptical.

  "Nothing guarantees that Iran will stay neutral and not influence the
new Iraqi government, not only because it shares the same religious
sect, but also for political objectives," a commentator on Abu Dhabi
television said recently.

  Meanwhile, Iran has been airing "news reports" that more closely
resemble advertisements urging Iraqis to vote. These spots appear on
Al-Alam Television, an Arabic language TV station owned by the Iranians
and widely watched in Iraq. They use quotes from Sistani, such as,
"Your religious duty is to vote," and, "Your vote is more valuable than
gold." The reports also strongly argue against postponing the
elections.

  Though they may be concerned with Iran's ability to foment Shiite
unrest in the Arab world, many Arab commentators are not threatened by
Iran's alleged nuclear weapons ambitions. To the contrary, they see an
Iranian nuclear bomb as a counter-balance to Israel's nuclear arsenal.
In fact, some Arab media admire Iran's ability to forge ahead in
developing nuclear technology in the face of U.S. opposition.

  For instance, the independent, London-based Al-Quds Al-Arabi published
a cartoon that poked fun at the lack of Arab ambitions to develop
similar technology. It depicted a father trying to light his broken
furnace and warning his son to stay clear in case of an explosion. The
cartoon's title: "Arab uranium enrichment program for this winter."

  Arab media have also been buzzing over Iran's success in strengthening
its partnership with China. According to Asharq Al-Awsat, after signing
a 30-year, $70 billion natural gas deal with Iran, during a November
visit to Iran the Chinese foreign minister told Iranian President
Muhammad Khatami that "his country had discussed Iran's nuclear issue
with both London and Washington" and had informed them that referring
the matter to the U.N. Security Council would "complicate matters
more."

  Commentator Khalis Jalabi similarly sees Washington's hands as tied
due to its economic dependence on countries eager to do business with
Iran. He writes in the Dec. 3, 2004, Asharq Al-Awsat that "about half
of the world's dollar reserves are in Asian countries' hands." (Japan
holds $462 billion and China $271 billion, in contrast to the America's
$80 billion in reserves.) Their willingness to buy U.S. Treasury bonds
keeps the dollar from dropping further. This has allowed Americans to
"maintain a luxurious lifestyle." Yet, since the war in Iraq, many
countries started buying euros. For example, Taiwan and Singapore have
transformed 20 to 35 percent of its reserves into the euro.

  Husseni makes a similar point in Asharq Al-Awsat. "As long as
Washington has a huge trade deficit and continues to rely on billions
of dollars in Chinese and Japanese banks (to maintain the strength of
the dollar), Iran will continue to win." Tokyo and Beijing, she says,
would oppose any U.S. efforts to punish Iran economically, due to their
need for Iranian energy resources.

  The Europeans are determined not to let Bush take Iran's nuclear
program to the U.N. Security Council and repeat the Iraq scenario.
China and Russia support Europe's position. Iran, it seems, is gaining
more allies and more leverage by the day. Amid the war on terrorism,
another empire may be taking its place on the world stage.

PNS contributor Jalal Ghazi (jalalghazi2002 at yahoo.com) monitors and
translates Arab media for New California Media and Link TV.

---

Copyright © 2004  Pacific News Service

http://news.pacificnews.org/news/view_article.html?
article_id=a25d126d76de17e057fd69dfdea80976

------ End of Forwarded Message