[Mb-civic] FW: Osama's Khomeini Plan !!!

[Golsorkhi]

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From: Samii Shahla <shahla at thesamiis.com>
Date: Mon, 20 Dec 2004 12:38:21 -0500
Subject: Osama's Khomeini Plan !!!

NY Post

  OSAMA'S PLAN B
   By PETER BROOKES


December 20, 2004 --  WHATEVER you do, don't dismiss Osama bin La den's
newest audio mes sage. Sure, it's just the latest of 17 cameos by the
terrorist thug since 9/11. But it may be his scariest yet.

  Why? Because Osama's latest appearance shows he's changing tactics,
and he's onto something that just might work this time.

  Everyone ‹ most of all Osama ‹ knows that his al Qaeda movement is
losing steam. Today, major al Qaeda terrorism is confined to Iraq,
where Abu Musab al Zarqawi, not bin Laden, holds center stage.

  Cowering in a cold, dank cave for the last three years is causing
Osama's stock to fall precipitously among the terrorist faithful. His
campaign of global death, destruction and despair isn't leading al
Qaeda to world domination as he had promised.

  In fact, by terrorizing Muslims and Muslim governments, he's actually
signing al Qaeda's death warrant. Realizing that he's no longer the
king of the terrorist universe, Osama has embarked on a new campaign ‹
a terrorist makeover of sorts.

  Now, instead of calling exclusively for the violent overthrow of
governments on historically Muslim lands, he's downsized his global
ambitions to a chunk of Middle Eastern sand ‹ and tempered his message.
Masquerading as a terrorist statesman of sorts, he's pushing for a
peaceful revolution (yes, peaceful change) in Saudi Arabia as a
parallel path to a violent overthrow.

  Osama has decided that world Muslim domination just isn't in the cards
for al Qaeda at the moment. But getting a fundamentalist foothold in
the holiest Islamic land (anyway he can) just might be the key to
overthrowing neighboring Muslim governments.

  Think of it as al Qaeda's domino theory. First, Saudi Arabia falls,
then Yemen, Oman, the Gulf States and so on.

  So why should we be alarmed by this? Because Osama's new strategy,
announced on the same day as planned anti-regime protests in Saudi
Arabia, smacks of the plot that successfully brought down the Shah of
Iran 25 years ago at the hands of Iranian cleric Ayatollah Ruhollah
Khomeini.

  Exiled for opposing the Shah's reforms in 1963, Khomeini settled in
the southern Iraqi Shi'ite holy city of Najaf, where he called for
religious rule in Iran.



  Under pressure from the Shah, Saddam Hussein expelled Khomeini in '78.
Moving to Paris, he called for the Shah's overthrow, communicating
through radio broadcasts, written statements and taped sermons that
were smuggled into Iran.

  Unhappiness with the Shah's repressive policies and Khomeini's
mythical stature (supported by local clerics) instigated widespread
riots in Iran in late 1978. Reading the handwriting on the wall, the
Shah left the country in January 1979 on a "vacation" and never
returned.

  Without firing a single shot, Khomeini, now a veritable Muslim rock
star, returned to Iran, establishing the first Islamic fundamentalist
state. The aftermath of Khomeini's "peaceful revolution" was anything
but peaceful.

  Twenty-five years later, revolutionary Iran stands as: a) the world's
most active state sponsor of terrorism; b) a highly repressive regime,
and c) a near nuclear weapons state.

  Could this happen in Saudi Arabia? Sure. The Iranian revolution caught
us by surprise in 1979 and so could a Saudi Arabian uprising now. And
Osama may be betting on it.

  Think about it: What better place to start a Sunni fundamentalist
revolution than Islam's holiest land ‹ Saudi Arabia? And even better,
doing so by fomenting peaceful revolution from within instead of
killing (and alienating) brother Muslims.

  If successful, the world's largest known oil reserves (25 percent)
would come under al Qaeda's control, threatening the industrialized
world's economies ‹ another Osama scheme. And, worse yet, Saudi Arabia
could become an Afghanistan-like terrorist sanctuary for destabilizing
other regional Muslim states, undoubtedly including Iraq.

  Once a snake pit for radicalism, Riyadh has done a lot to crack down
on terrorism. It needs to do more. Saudi Arabia could certainly help
defend itself by easing up on repression, reining in security forces
and opening the political system to wider participation.

  Of course, there are differences between 1979 Iran (and Khomeini) and
2004 Saudi Arabia (and Osama) for sure. This is a cautionary tale.

  It's by no means inevitable that Saudi Arabia will suffer the same
fate as Iran. But it's possible.

  The Iranian revolution caught the world unawares ‹ and look at the
consequences of our lack of vigilance today. It's easy to ignore
Osama's seemingly endless slew of threats, especially since they're
becoming more frequent.

  But he's taking a new tack, and reaching out to motivate old ‹ and new
‹ potential followers, like Khomeini did. And despite growing "Osama
fatigue," we turn a blind eye to his new game at great peril.

  Peter Brookes is a Heritage Foundation senior fellow. E-mail:
peterbrookes at heritage.org
---
http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/36799.htm


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