[Mb-civic] An article for you from an Economist.com reader.

Mon Nov 22 06:39:31 PST 2004

- AN ARTICLE FOR YOU, FROM ECONOMIST.COM - 

Dear Civic,

Michael Butler (michael at intrafi.com) wants you to see this article on Economist.com.

The sender also included the following message for you:

Good Bye Colin, Hello Condi

(Note: the sender's e-mail address above has not been verified.)

Subscribe to Economist.com now and save 25% by clicking here now
http://www.economist.com/subscriptions/offer.cfm?campaign=168-XLMT

FAREWELL COLIN, HELLO CONDI
Nov 18th 2004  

A change that should be for the better

IT HAS replaced Kremlinology as the main diplomatic parlour game. With
each change of the guard, outsiders rush to draw dramatic conclusions
about factional infighting and ideological power struggles; and then
they are usually forced to revise them. Instead of Politburo
hardliners, Georgian satraps and Moscow modernisers, we now have Bush
loyalists, neo-conservatives, assertive realists, traditional
internationalists, Pentagon hawks and State Department doves.

This week saw the departure from the Bush administration of the
supposed head dove. Colin Powell, George Bush's secretary of state,
resigned, and was replaced by Condoleezza Rice, hitherto the national
security adviser. Because Mr Powell was seen as the most
internationalist member of the administration and Ms Rice (no mean real
Kremlinologist, incidentally) is seen primarily as a Bush loyalist
(with a bit of assertive realism thrown in), many Bushologists in
Europe have jumped to depict the change as a shift to the right. It
need not be.

The European view is that Mr Powell was always an internationalist and
that he lost all his battles inside the administration. Neither is
strictly true. Far from opposing the administration's most
controversial policies, Mr Powell ended up to the fore in the Iraq war.
He certainly was a moderating, multilateralist influence on Mr Bush
(particularly in partnership with Tony Blair) but some of his battles
with Donald Rumsfeld, the defence secretary, had less to do with
ideology than with familiar turf squabbles between the Pentagon and
State.

As for his achievements, Mr Powell sadly leaves office a diminished
figure. Four years ago, he was seen as presidential material. Mr Powell
seems to have found high office something of a strain. Perhaps for that
reason he never travelled enough. But he did win plenty of the
struggles he undertook--from refashioning America's relations with
China to persuading Mr Bush to go back to the United Nations over Iraq
(both blows to those supposedly omnipotent neo-conservatives). 

What of Ms Rice? She offers one straightforward advantage over Mr
Powell: she is less likely to be at odds with Mr Bush, so there will be
fewer mixed signals. The promotion of Stephen Hadley, Ms Rice's deputy
and another Bush loyalist, to be her successor at the NSC is also to be
welcomed. Much depends, however, on two unknowns.

The first is the sphinx-like Ms Rice herself. As with Mr Bush himself,
she seems in the past four years to have swayed between those different
factions. She remains a committed supporter of hard power and Mr Bush's
steely pledge to bring democracy to the Middle East; but she also seems
aware of the "soft" need to redeem America's reputation in Europe and
the Arab world, if only on the pragmatic ground that America cannot
achieve what it wants alone. Those are good instincts; they will
require a flintier resolve than Ms Rice showed as national security
adviser (see article[1]).

The other unknown is Mr Bush's other changes. The vacancy list includes
Ms Rice's own deputy at the State Department. But the most urgent
change should be the removal of Mr Rumsfeld. This has nothing to do
with ideology, and everything to do with pragmatism. Mr Powell may have
been America's official face abroad, but the things that have proven so
disastrous to America's image and its effectiveness--Abu Ghraib,
Guantanamo Bay and the mismanagement of the occupation of Iraq--all
fell firmly in Mr Rumsfeld's patch. Ms Rice, Mr Bush and America need a
fresh start.

-----
[1] http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_ID=3402804

See this article with graphics and related items at http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3400835&subjectID=1527355&emailauth=%2527%2523%2540G%255EK83%255D%255E%2540%255E%253C%250A

Go to http://www.economist.com for more global news, views and analysis from the Economist Group.

- ABOUT ECONOMIST.COM -

Economist.com is the online version of The Economist newspaper, an independent weekly international news and business publication offering clear reporting, commentary and analysis on world politics, business, finance, science & technology, culture, society and the arts. Economist.com also offers exclusive content online, including additional articles throughout the week in the Global Agenda section.

- SUBSCRIBE NOW AND SAVE 25% -

Click here: http://www.economist.com/subscriptions/offer.cfm?campaign=168-XLMT

Subscribe now with 25% off and receive full access to: 

* all the articles published in The Economist newspaper
* the online archive - allowing you to search and retrieve over 33,000 articles published in The Economist since 1997 
* The World in 2004 - The Economist's outlook on 2004 
* The US Election 2004 - providing dedicated coverage of the election, including articles from Roll Call, Capitol Hill's leading political publication 
* Business encyclopedia - allows you to find a definition and explanation for any business term 

- ABOUT THIS E-MAIL -

This e-mail was sent to you by the person at the e-mail address listed
above through a link found on Economist.com.  We will not send you any 
future messages as a result of your being the recipient of this e-mail.

- COPYRIGHT -

Economist.com privacy policy: http://www.economist.com/about/privacy.cfm