[Mb-civic] Avnery on the musical chairs game

[ean at sbcglobal.net]

GUSH SHALOM - pob 3322, Tel-Aviv 61033  www.gush-shalom.org/

Avnery - not very impressed with the new American administation  - 
nevertheless thinks that Sharon may long back for the days when there was
a scapegoat.

òáøéú áàúø / Hebrew on the website 
http://www.gush-shalom.org/archives/article331_heb.html

Uri Avnery
20.11.04
    Who's Next?

http://www.gush-shalom.org/archives/article331.html

     George W. Bush is a product of the Wild West myth. He sees himself as
the fast-drawing sheriff who kills the bad guys and maintains order in
town.
     But in fact he is much more like another stock figure of the 
Westerns: the top-hatted vendor of the patent medicine which heals 
everything: tooth-ache and belly-ache, cholera and impotence, gunshot
wounds and heart attacks.
      Bush's patent medicine is called "democracy". Democracy will heal
all the diseases of the Middle East and the entire world. If only the
Muslim nations would buy his little flask, all problems would be solved,
and foremost among them the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. And since Israel
is already an exemplary democracy, led by that great democrat, Ariel
Sharon, all that is needed now is to impose democracy on the Palestinians.
This means free elections for president and parliament.
     A person with limited intellectual capacity needs simple solutions. A
 one-dimensional solution that does not demand delving into the
complexities of other societies and civilizations. What's good for his
little Texan town must be good for Baghdad and Gaza, too.
     Since winning reelection, his self-confidence has shot sky high. He
has kicked out the hapless Colin Powell and put a certified yeswoman in
charge of the State Department. From now on, nobody will question his
decisions anymore. Not even if he appoints his horse Chief Justice. 
     So who is worried? Of all people, Ariel Sharon, his great friend,
teacher and guide.
     As fate would have it, Bush achieved his great victory one day 
before the sudden, mysterious breakdown of Yasser Arafat's health. 
Sharon's alibi was buried in Ramallah.
     Successive Israeli governments have presented Arafat as a monster and
used his monstrosity as a pretext for undermining any attempt to impose
peace upon them. Peace means withdrawing to the pre-1967 border, more or
less, and dismantling the settlements. Peace means giving up East
Jerusalem, more than half of the "eternal capital of Israel". God forbid!
     The demonization of Arafat helped avoid this. After all, one cannot
make peace with a monster. Even Bush understood that. Therefore he helped
Sharon prevent elections for the Palestinian Authority, in which Arafat
was certain to be reelected by a landslide.
     But now Arafat is not there, and Bush is. Sharon is very troubled.
And rightly so.
     For four years, the mantra in Washington has been: Fighting 
International Terrorism. That suited Sharon fine, since he was riding on
the "fight terrorism" horse anyhow.
     For the next four years, the new mantra in Washington may well be:
Democracy for the Middle East. That will suit Abu-Mazen, who is riding the
democracy horse.
     Abu-Mazen has been chosen as Chairman of the PLO. Abu-Mazen wears a
business suit, not a uniform. He wears a tie, not a kuffieh. He looks like
an ordinary democratic leader. He is known for his opposition to the
suicide bombings in Israel. Contrary to all Israeli predictions, the
Palestinian transfer of power has taken place in an orderly manner, much
as in any civilized country. Within two months, new elections are to take
place.
     That puts Sharon on the spot. He cannot object to elections, since
they are the apple of Bush's eye. He must not raise the slightest
suspicion that he is undermining them. Any complaint about the Israeli
army hindering elections by incursions, roadblocks and "targeted
assassinations" may arouse the ire of the White House.
    Sharon is hoping that the Palestinians will sabotage their elections
themselves. Armed factions may disturb the orderly process. Last week
there was shooting during Abu-Mazen's visit to Gaza - which caused an
outburst of joy and glee in Israel. But the incident passed, all
Palestinian factions are showing restraint and the people are unified in
their desire for peaceful elections. 
     For Sharon this is a nightmare. The way it looks now, elections will
indeed take place, with several candidates standing - and Abu-Mazen will
be elected president.
      For Bush that will be a great achievement: the first Arab democracy
will be on its way. Even if anarchy reigns in Iraq, Palestine will prove
that his vision is coming true. Bush will embrace Abu-Mazen. The way to a
"free Palestinian state" within four years will be open.
     For Sharon, there is no greater danger. His plan - to annex 58% of
the West Bank to Israel - will be struck from the agenda. He will be
requested to dismantle most of the settlements, and before that to freeze
all of them. 
     Worse: the intimate, exclusive relationship with Bush will be upset. 
 The couple will become a triangle, and three is a crowd. Already 
Condoleezza is about to meet Abu-Mazen.
      So what can be done? Clearly, Abu-Mazen has to be destroyed before
he gets the chance to put down roots. But it is also clear that Sharon
cannot conduct any overt act against him. A strategy of indirect approach
is indicated.
     Even before Arafat returned his soul to his maker, Sharon declared
that there will be no negotiations with his successors until after they
"put an end to terrorism". He hoped that the magic word "terrorism" would
make Bush jump. And since even Arafat, with all his towering authority,
did not disarm Hamas and Jihad, there is not the slightest chance that
Abu-Mazen could do it.
     The Americans did not fall into this primitive trap, and so Sharon
decided to be a little more sophisticated. This week he announced that he
will not speak with Abu-Mazen unless he immediately stops the "incitement"
against Israel in all Palestinian media and schools.
     Abu-Mazen might just as well be requested to pluck the moon from the
heavens. How could the new democratic chairman abolish freedom of speech
on TV and in the press - while incitement against the Palestinians
continues in the Israeli media at full blast, not to mention their dancing
on Arafat's grave? And how does one change the schoolbooks (most of them
Egyptian and Jordanian in any case) within two months - while in Israeli
schools, especially the religious ones, both orally and in writing, the
right of the Palestinian people to their country is totally denied?
     The presentation of impossible demands as a pre-condition to 
negotiations is an old trick of Sharon's. One may assume that the 
Americans will not fall into this trap again. Something more extreme and
immediate must happen. For example: bloody attacks, acts of "terrorism"
that can be attributed to the new chairman, civil war, anarchy.
     Abu-Mazen and his colleagues know this full well. They are working to
prevent this. Since they lack the means to apply force, they must use
persuasion. The traditional Arab method is "Ijmah" - a round of
discussions that goes on until everybody is persuaded, so that no minority
will feel that it has been vanquished by a majority. Arafat was a past
master of this.
     If this succeeds, there will be a temporary cease-fire until the
elections. But the main problem will remain: the new Chairman will be
unable to persuade his people to end the armed intifada if he cannot show
another way of ending the occupation and achieving Palestinian
independence. If the Americans want the new regime to take hold, they must
bring about the immediate start of negotiations, with the clear aim of
establishing the State of Palestine within a strict timetable.
          Sharon will do everything he can to destroy Abu-Mazen before
this happens. He wrecked the first Abu-Mazen government, two years ago, by
withholding anything which might contribute to political progress
(blaming, as usual, Arafat). Now he must wreck Abu-Mazen under much more
difficult circumstances.
     Let no one have any illusions: Sharon will use every means, overt and
covert, in order to destroy any "moderate" Palestinian leadership. His
natural ally is Hamas, which opposes any negotiations with Israel. As of
now, Abu-Mazen is Enemy No. 1.


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