[Mb-civic] An article for you from an Economist.com reader.

Thu Feb 3 10:59:50 PST 2005

- AN ARTICLE FOR YOU, FROM ECONOMIST.COM - 

Dear civic,

Michael Butler (michael at intrafi.com) wants you to see this article on Economist.com.

(Note: the sender's e-mail address above has not been verified.)

Subscribe to Economist.com now and save 25% by clicking here now
http://www.economist.com/subscriptions/offer.cfm?campaign=168-XLMT

CAN THE VOTERS BUILD ON SUCCESS?
Feb 3rd 2005  

In four articles on Iraq's elections, we analyse the elections'
achievement--and see why a new government will still struggle to impose
itself, at home and abroad

"A GREAT day," said the interim (and perhaps outgoing) prime minister,
Iyad Allawi. "Absolutely delighted," was the verdict of a usually dour
American diplomat in Baghdad. Many Iraqi voters evidently shared such
feelings, dancing in the streets, tossing sweets into polling stations,
and waving two fingers, one dyed with supposedly indelible ink to
prevent multiple voting, in a victory salute. Many said that the vote
was a defeat for terrorism and that their sons and fathers murdered by
Saddam Hussein had now been avenged. "I'm a suicide voter!" proudly
declared one of the first citizens to cast a ballot in a Sunni district
of Baghdad.

It was not all joy. At least 44 people, including 26 Iraqi civilians,
eight Iraqi troops, ten British servicemen and one American soldier,
are known to have been killed on election day. All told, across the
country, insurgents launched a record 260 attacks, four times the
current daily average, in an attempt to wreck the vote. There were
around 100 attacks at or near polling stations, of which there were
more than 5,300. Faced with a total ban on vehicle traffic throughout
the country, the insurgents sent at least eight bombers on foot,
wearing suicide vests, into voting stations. But no polling station was
burned down or blown up. 

As expected, the Sunni Arabs' turnout was small. Early estimates put it
at 20-30%. It was almost non-existent in well-known trouble spots such
as Ramadi, Fallujah and Samarra. But in mixed areas, in Sunni districts
of Baghdad, in Mosul (a mixed city where the insurgency has been
especially fierce of late), in tribal areas and in various places
across the Sunni triangle, the vote was much higher than
expected--though hundreds of thousands of voters in Sunni Arab areas
either voluntarily boycotted the poll or were frightened away. 

Certainly there were irregularities. Some polling-station officials
made helpful suggestions as to which list voters should tick. In some
areas, party toughs kicked rivals' poll-watchers out of the stations
and tampered with the ballot boxes. Some Kurds discovered that the ink
used to prevent double-voting was actually quite delible if you first
dipped your finger in moisturising cream. 

American army officers say that the insurgents were less effective than
had been feared, for two reasons. First, they have recently lost many
of their best men, including Baathist officers trained in guerrilla
warfare. Many insurgents thrown into the fray to disrupt the election
were apparently raw recruits. Second, the Iraqi security forces
performed better than usual, perhaps because they too were inspired by
the feeling that it was an historic opportunity for their compatriots
to have a genuine choice at the ballot box for the first time in living
memory. Just before election day, it was notable that many watching
youths cheered when the tanks of the new army's first mechanised
brigade, decked in national flags, rolled through central Baghdad,
looking like a real fighting unit. 

A sense of "taking back the streets" was visible on election day,
especially in Baghdad. Even the Mahdi Army, the militia of the fiery
Shia, Muqtada al-Sadr, who had discouraged his followers from voting
without exactly telling them not to, helped keep order in Baghdad's
slums, making it easier for citizens to go to the polls.

This mood of hope, almost euphoria, may explain why none of the big
parties has complained about electoral irregularities. The worst
organisational defect was a shortage of ballot papers in certain areas,
especially in the Sunni Arab north; in Mosul, the papers twice ran out,
according to Ghazi al-Yawar, a Sunni Arab with a tribal following who
is the interim president and headed his own electoral list. But even
the smaller parties, who lack toughs of their own and for whom a few
thousand votes could make the difference, under the system of pure
proportional representation, between getting a seat in parliament or
not, have so far been fairly reluctant to shout foul. 

Though full results may not be known for ten days after the poll, it is
still considered most probable that the most votes have been cast for
the United Iraqi Alliance, better known as "the Shia house", "the
clerics' list", or simply "list 169" after its number on the huge
ballot paper. Though Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq's most
influential clergyman, did not formally endorse the list, his bearded
visage was emblazoned on its posters. 

Its two key components are two Islamist-inclined parties, the Supreme
Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), led by a cleric, Abdul
Aziz al-Hakim, and the Dawa ("Call") party, led by a doctor, Ibrahim
al-Jaafari. In the run-up to the poll, both parties sought to soften
their Islamist tinge (and especially SCIRI's close ties with Iran) in a
bid to reassure Iraq's many secular-minded Shias that they do not
intend to turn Iraq into an Iranian-style theocracy. Some of its
posters even featured attractive unveiled women.

The rival Iraqi List, headed by the secular-minded Mr Allawi, may also
have done well. Many Sunni Arabs seem to endorse his wish to rebuild a
strong army and see him as a bulwark against an Iranian takeover, while
members of both main Muslim sects like his sturdy leadership
style--"like Saddam but with justice", as a Sunni voter put it. 

Provided that the clergy-backed United Iraqi Alliance does not win an
outright majority, which some of its adherents are predicting, some
frenzied horse-trading is likely to take place in the next few weeks,
as parties jockey for a place in a ruling coalition. Mr Allawi's list
and the Kurdish Alliance, which is sure to have swept up most Kurdish
seats (see article[1]), may well hold the balance. But even Communists
and monarchists may play a pivotal part.

The next step is for the 275-seat assembly to choose, by a two-thirds
majority, a three-person presidential council (a president and two
deputies) which in turn must unanimously choose a prime minister within
a month of the election. The assembly must then endorse a prime
minister and his chosen government. 

All the main parties say they will ensure that Sunni Arabs are well
represented, both in government and in the committees due to draft a
constitution. This should be ready in mid-August, endorsed in a
referendum in mid-October, and pave the way to another general
election, under new rules, in December. But only if Sunnis are seen to
have a proper say is there a chance that the new government, especially
in the four worst affected of Iraq's 18 provinces, will start to
contain the still raging insurgency. 

-----
[1] http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_ID=3632631

See this article with graphics and related items at http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=3630452&fsrc=nwl

Go to http://www.economist.com for more global news, views and analysis from the Economist Group.

- ABOUT ECONOMIST.COM -

Economist.com is the online version of The Economist newspaper, an independent weekly international news and business publication offering clear reporting, commentary and analysis on world politics, business, finance, science & technology, culture, society and the arts. Economist.com also offers exclusive content online, including additional articles throughout the week in the Global Agenda section.

- SUBSCRIBE NOW AND SAVE 25% -

Click here: http://www.economist.com/subscriptions/offer.cfm?campaign=168-XLMT

Subscribe now with 25% off and receive full access to: 

* all the articles published in The Economist newspaper
* the online archive - allowing you to search and retrieve over 33,000 articles published in The Economist since 1997 
* The World in 2004 - The Economist's outlook on 2004 
* The US Election 2004 - providing dedicated coverage of the election, including articles from Roll Call, Capitol Hill's leading political publication 
* Business encyclopedia - allows you to find a definition and explanation for any business term 

- ABOUT THIS E-MAIL -

This e-mail was sent to you by the person at the e-mail address listed
above through a link found on Economist.com.  We will not send you any 
future messages as a result of your being the recipient of this e-mail.

- COPYRIGHT -

Economist.com privacy policy: http://www.economist.com/about/privacy.cfm