[Mb-civic] More sticks, and the odd carrot Jan 18th 2005 From The Economist Global Agenda

[Michael Butler]

More sticks, and the odd carrot
Jan 18th 2005
>From The Economist Global Agenda


As Condoleezza Rice attends hearings that should lead to her being confirmed
as America¹s new secretary of state, a report suggests America may be
preparing to attack Iran. What will be the dominant theme of George Bush¹s
second-term foreign policy?


LOVE it or loathe it, the Bush administration wins full points for
foreign-policy boldness. Entering his second term on Thursday January 20th,
President George Bush, many think, should feel chastened by his record in
his first four years. In particular, he has embroiled America in a conflict
in Iraq that has become bloodier and more difficult than anyone in the
administration imagined.

But a report this week in the New Yorker magazine by Seymour Hersh, an
investigative journalist, suggests that Mr Bush and those close to him are
feeling far from gun-shy going into his second term. Mr Hersh alleges that
the Pentagon, usurping a role formerly held by the CIA, has begun a series
of covert operations of which it will report only the most general details
to Congress. Most explosively, the article alleges that America already has
commando teams operating inside Iran, scouting targets for a potential
strike on the Islamic republic¹s nuclear facilities. America is convinced
that Iran has a secret nuclear-weapons programme, though Iran insists its
nuclear dabblings are for civilian purposes only.

The Pentagon was quick to issue a press release saying that Mr Hersh¹s
article was ³riddled with errors². But it did not deny the central claim of
stepped-up covert activity run from the Pentagon. And Iran seems to be
taking the threat seriously: its defence minister talked up the deterrent
power of Iran¹s conventional military in comments published in a newspaper
on Tuesday.

This storm broke just as Condoleezza Rice, Mr Bush¹s national-security
adviser during his first term, was beginning confirmation hearings to become
the new secretary of state. Ms Rice, who is almost certain to be confirmed,
will replace the doveish, multilateral-minded Colin Powell. Mr Powell was
seen as getting on poorly with other cabinet members, especially Donald
Rumsfeld, the defence secretary, and Dick Cheney, the vice-president, and he
often seemed to have little influence on Mr Bush. Ms Rice, by contrast, has
for some time been the president¹s closest adviser and is a personal friend.

How will she affect foreign policy? Before Mr Bush was elected, she was
known as a ³realist², more concerned with power and security than with using
American might to democratise other countries. It is hard to know if she has
changed her views in office, as her advice is given to the president behind
the scenes. But in her opening statement in her confirmation hearings, she
spoke out strongly for Mr Bush¹s vision of spreading democracy. She said
that the president had broken with the habit of ³excusing and accommodating²
the lack of democracy in the Middle East, and that pushing democracy would
be a big part of relations with Russia.

So, Ms Rice has made clear that she intends to back Mr Bush¹s
neo-conservative-inspired dream of democratic transformation in
strategically important countries that are currently run by autocrats. But
the hard-headed ³realists², strong believers in the notion of credible
threats, also have reason to be pleased. Only this week, Mr Bush refused to
rule out military action against Iran. America also intends to keep up the
pressure on North Korea, another nuclear renegade which, the realists
believe, understands nothing but power.

Even the multilateralists are hopeful, despite Mr Powell¹s departure. Robert
Zoellick, America¹s trade representative, who has extensive experience
negotiating with the European Union and other key trading partners, has been
nominated to be Ms Rice¹s deputy secretary of state. And Mr Bush himself has
praised the Europeans¹ painstaking negotiations with Iran over its
uranium-enrichment programme.

Get real

But can the realists, neo-conservatives and multilateralists all be made
happier in a second Bush term? There are numerous internal inconsistencies.
The internationalist types will note that credible reports of secret raids
into Iran are sure to irritate the Europeans, who will feel that their
diplomacy is being undercut. The neo-conservatives must resign themselves to
the fact that, in the next four years as in the past four, America will need
to cosy up to non-democracies, such as Pakistan and Uzbekistan. And the
realists no doubt worry that any strikes on Iran¹s nuclear facilities could
embroil America in a larger conflict with that country‹at a time when
America¹s forces are already heavily committed in Iraq and Afghanistan, and
facing down a threat from Kim Jong Il's Hermit Kingdom.

Ms Rice has indicated that she will seek to bring the State Department¹s
worried diplomats peacefully round to Mr Bush¹s way of thinking, rather than
seeking to break their backs. But they may be sobered by seeing what has
happened at another unruly agency, the CIA. Its new boss, Porter Goss, has
signalled that no more will the agency¹s spies and analysts undermine Mr
Bush¹s policies with pessimistic reports or self-justifying leaks to the
press.

A forthcoming review will recommend whether the CIA¹s covert paramilitary
operations should be given to the Pentagon. According to Mr Hersh, the
result is a foregone conclusion: the indefatigable and apparently unsackable
Mr Rumsfeld will see his empire grow at the expense of the CIA. Last-minute
changes to the wording of a new intelligence-reform bill, signed by Mr Bush
last month, have been taken by many to mean that the Pentagon will keep
ultimate control over roughly 80% of the intelligence budget. No wonder
morale at the CIA is said to be in the pits.

What does all of this say about the shape of foreign policy in the second
Bush term? The president seems to hope that by promoting both Ms Rice and Mr
Goss and by shepherding through the intelligence-reform bill, he can make
the State Department and the CIA more loyal to the White House; and that
this, combined with offering countries like Iran and North Korea a bunch of
sticks and a few carrots, will make American policy towards the outside
world more coherent and effective. Will it work? From Paris to Pyongyang,
the answer is awaited with bated breath.


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