[Mb-civic] FW: The next domino

Sat Mar 5 10:30:34 PST 2005

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From: Samii Shahla <shahla at thesamiis.com>
Date: Fri, 4 Mar 2005 19:44:37 -0500
Subject: The next domino

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> March 4th, 2005
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> The next domino
>
> March 2nd, 2005
>
>
>
> With virtually no attention from the mainstream media, the United
> States has been taking actions calculated to ratchet-up pressure on
> the mullahs of Iran. A complex plan has been carefully crafted to
> avoid a direct military attack on Iran, which would inflame
> nationalism and build support for the mullahs. Once again, the scope,
> subtlety, and vision of President Bush¹s foreign policy confounds his
> carping critics.
>
> The fall of Lebanon¹s pro-Syrian government validates GW¹s strategy of
> staying the course in Iraq, to prove to the people of the Middle East
> that freedom and liberty can flourish in a region where many thought
> it was impossible to institute democratic reforms.  We mustn¹t lose
> sight of the fact that, despite criticism from the so-called realists,
> the US is implementing change in the region for our own long-term
> national interests.  That is, the more functioning democracies there
> are in the world, the less the chance of armed conflict and terrorism.
>
> Over the last several months, Iran¹s support of Shia terrorists in
> Iraq and its nuclear ambitions have dominated the discussions of our
> next steps in the War on Terror.  Some commentators, including me,
> have criticized CENTCOM for its failure to view the war in Southwest
> Asia from a regional perspective.  However, we may have been wrong, or
> at least too hasty.
>
>  Iran has been aggressively moving to export terror and build-up its
> ability to threaten the world in two places: the Horn of Africa, and
> the vital Straits of Hormuz, where the Persian Gulf¹s oil riches must
> pass on their way to market. There are now some serious indicators
> that the Coalition, including both French and German military
> elements, has been deftly executing a combined political and military
> operation to roll back Iranian gains from the last 12 years.
>
> The Iranian maneuver to dominate the Central Region and isolate the
> Arabian Peninsula started in the Horn of Africa in the early 90s. By
> aligning with warlord Mohammed Farah Aideed¹s forces, Iran hoped to
> gain a foothold in Somalia that could potentially threaten shipping
> moving through the Red Sea. Following the US strategic retreat from
> Somalia after the ³Blackhawk Down² ambush in 1993, the remaining UN
> peacekeepers withdrew in 1995 and  abandoned the country to the
> terrorists and their Iranian sponsors.  After 9-11, the Coalition was
> forced use Djibouti as a base to secure the shipping lanes on the
> Western side of the Arabian Peninsula, and to interdict the movement
> of terrorists into and out of the region.
>
> There are strong indications that the efforts of Combined Joint Task
> Force  Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA)  are starting to push Iranian
> operators out of the Horn, if they have not gone already.  United
> States naval and ground forces, French commandos, and Die Deutsche
> Kriegsmarine (German Navy), through a combined series of special and
> conventional operations, naval power, and humanitarian assistance
> projects, have established the conditions for the  introduction of up
> to 7,500 troops from the African Union and the Arab League.  This is a
> watershed event for the Coalition in this area, and shows that the
> Somali people are anxious to finally rid their country of bandits,
> terrorists, and Iranian agents, and are looking forward to having the
> government-in-exile return to Mogadishu.
>
> The Coalition also mounted a synchronized diplomatic  and military
> blitz in neighboring Ethiopia, with elements of the 3d Infantry
> Regiment (The Old Guard) moving into the country  last year to secure
> territory for military assistance training and for ³other operations²
> in the War on Terror. (For a summary of the $1.2 billion U.S.
> humanitarian assistance program in the country click here.)  In
> addition, there were several visits by the former and current
> commanders of CENTCOM, General (retired) Tommy Franks and General John
> Abizaid, and visits by Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld.  This was all
> done under the radar screen of the major press, but it was not lost on
> the mullahs.  All they had to do was look at the map.  The
> Kriegsmarine had sealed off Somalia from the eastern sea approaches,
> Ethiopia became increasingly untenable for cross-border terror bases
> and Iranian training camps, and, more than likely, Coalition special
> operations forces from Djibouti were taking their toll.  In short, the
> Iranians in the Horn of Africa have been surrounded.
>
> The other prong of CENTCOM¹s operations against Iran involves Abu Musa
> Island.  The island had been the object of a long-running dispute
> between Iran and the UAE because of its oil reserves and its strategic
> location midway in the narrow channel of the Straits of Hormuz.  In
> 1992, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps  took complete control of
> the island , and proceeded to fortify it and deploy thousands of
> troops, modern air defense batteries, sophisticated anti-ship missile
> systems, and, according to former SecDef William Perry, chemical
> weapons.  For over a decade, the Iranians have had the capability of
> shutting down the shipping lane and paralyzing shipment of over
> one-fifth of the world¹s oil supply.  However, recent US operations in
> the Persian Gulf are, at a minimum, presenting a more aggressive
> military posture to pressure the mullahs, or are signaling a run-up to
> seizure of Abu Musa itself.
>
> This past week, Expeditionary Strike Group 5 (ESG-5) completed an
> amphibious exercise on the coast of Kuwait.  Keep in mind that a
> rehearsal is a phase of any amphibious operation, and allows the
> afloat Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) and the Navy to test the
> communications links, practice disembarkation, exercise the procedures
> for naval surface fire support and air support, and, of course,
> practice the assault itself. The ESG rarely loads at home port in a
> manner that will completely satisfy every contingency.  Therefore, the
> rehearsal is a chance to unload everything on the beach, and then load
> according to a specific assault plan.  This was done in Gulf War I
> during a ³rehearsal² when an actual amphibious assault on Kuwaiti
> beaches was still a viable option.
>
> Additional naval forces are also present in the Gulf  .  Besides
> ESG-5, the Essex Expeditionary Strike Group is underway, as is the USS
> Harry Truman Carrier Battle Group.  One MEU is the ideal force to
> seize Abu Musa, but the additional forces would be needed to protect
> an amphibious group from any interference from nearby Qeshm Island,
> and to continue to secure the Iraqi oil terminals off the Al-Faw
> Peninsula.  Simply put, the mullahs¹ 12 year old gambit to squeeze oil
> shipments through the Straights of Hormuz could come to an end very
> quickly.
>
> Rather than risk a popular backlash by the citizens of Iran against
> the US by conducting a direct air or land campaign against the Iranian
> homeland, seizure of an island that has been disputed for decades
> would show the Iranians we were willing to support their fight against
> the mullahs without putting their lives at risk or destroying their
> infrastructure. The mullahs launched their gambit as an act of
> aggression; reversing it would demonstrate strength, but indicate no
> hostility to the Iranian people.
>
> This analysis doesn¹t even include any possible covert Special
> Operations Force activities designed to foment rebellion in what is
> viewed as an increasingly restive Iranian population.  Because of the
> pressure being applied in the Horn of Africa and the Persian Gulf, it
> may require only a slight push from the freedom-loving people in Iran
> to rid themselves of this oppressive regime, following through on the
> very visible promise to them made by President Bush in his State of
> the Union Address.
>
> Sadly for Germany and Russia, they may have to wait a long time, if at
> all, to recover their decades-old investments in Iranian nuclear
> facilities.  Unfortunately for them, their cash flow problems will
> continue to grow for the foreseeable future.  Maybe they should have
> jumped on GW¹s freedom bandwagon a long time ago.
>
> Douglas Hanson is our military affairs correspondent
>
>
> Douglas Hanson
>
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