[Mb-civic] An article for you from an Economist.com reader.

Wed Oct 12 18:06:31 PDT 2005

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SYRIA
Oct 12th 2005  

Syria's interior minister, Ghazi Kanaan--who was recently questioned by
UN investigators over the assassination of Lebanon's former prime
minister--has been found shot dead in his office. President Bashar
Assad may consider his minister's "suicide" as rather convenient,
though in fact it could serve to weaken his regime

SUICIDE is an oddly common exit for top Syrian officials. Five years
ago, a recently disgraced prime minister, Jamal al-Zubi, managed to
shoot himself, repeatedly, while under house arrest. Now the country's
interior minister, Ghazi Kanaan, has met a similar fate. This latest
death, however, is far more significant. 

On Wednesday October 12th, Syria announced that Mr Kanaan had been
found dead in his office, having supposedly shot himself in the mouth.
His death was disclosed only hours after he telephoned a Lebanese radio
station to deny rumours about information he is said to have passed to
United Nations investigators. They had recently questioned him and
other Syrian security officials over the assassination of Rafik Hariri,
a former prime minister of Lebanon who had opposed Syria's military and
political domination of his country. 

Mr Kanaan ended his radio interview by saying: "I think this may be the
last statement I give." Almost simultaneously, Mr Assad was giving an
interview to America's CNN television, repeating his denials that he or
his regime had anything to do with Hariri's murder. More intriguingly
still, in another recent interview, the Syrian president said that if
anyone in his government were found to have "acted alone", this would
be considered as treason, punishable by death. 

Mr Kanaan was both a ruthlessly seasoned intelligence operator and a
member of the Alawite minority that dominates Syria's power elite (and
to which Mr Assad belongs). For 20 years until 2002, Mr Kanaan
virtually ruled Lebanon in his capacity as Syria's proconsul in the
neighbouring state. A master manipulator of Lebanon's viciously
contesting factions, he systematically bled Syria's enemies before
helping to seal the accord in 1989 that ended Lebanon's 15 years of
civil war and ensconced Syria as Lebanon's final arbiter. The ensuing
peace, enforced by a security establishment that reported directly to
Mr Kanaan, richly rewarded his friends, top Syrian generals and
pro-Syrian Lebanese politicians alike. 

Brought back to Damascus as head of the Political Security Directorate
three years ago, before becoming interior minister in October 2004, Mr
Kanaan was a pillar of the regime. But his apparent removal from direct
oversight of Lebanon boded poorly for Syria's fortunes. Growing
Lebanese resentment of Syrian tutelage erupted after the killing, in
February, of Hariri, which many Lebanese instinctively blamed on Syria.
International opprobrium forced Syria to pull out its troops and
undermined the patronage network created by Mr Kanaan, such that the
Lebanese elections this summer produced a determinedly anti-Syrian
government. 

More damaging yet, the UN's investigation into Hariri's murder fingered
the Lebanese security chiefs that Mr Kanaan had put in place, several
of whom were arrested. Last month, the UN's chief investigator, Detlev
Mehlis, pressed his inquiries still closer. Bowing to intense
diplomatic pressure, Mr Assad let him question senior intelligence
officials, including Mr Kanaan and his successor in Lebanon until the
Syrian withdrawal, Rustum Ghazale. In the radio interview he gave
minutes before his death, Mr Kanaan denied rumours reported in Lebanese
media that he had handed the UN investigators extensive files on
corruption in Lebanon during his tenure and had shown them photocopies
of cheques he had received from Hariri. 

As yet, the outcome of the UN team's interrogations remains unknown. Mr
Mehlis is due to report to the UN Security Council on October 25th.
Speculation has mounted, however, as to how Mr Assad's fragile regime
may respond if it is implicated in Hariri's murder and told to
surrender officials for trial. Because Damascus is diplomatically
isolated, and squeezed militarily between Israel and America's forces
in Iraq, Mr Assad may have concluded that it would be wise to offer a
scapegoat. Was that Mr Kanaan? 

Even if the UN sleuths' trail of clues stops at the door of Mr Kanaan,
that may not get Mr Assad off the hook. The loss of such a stalwart
figure in his wobbly regime seems likely to weaken it further,
especially if Mr Kanaan's allies find it hard to swallow the official
line that his death was suicide. The president, his clan and the ruling
Baath party face a crisis as grave as any since his father, Hafez
Assad, consolidated Syria's dictatorship 35 years ago. Where once it
could rely on support from the Soviet Union and pan-Arab solidarity,
Syria now has few friends in the world except Iran. America is annoyed
at Syria's suspected abetting of Iraqi insurgents and at the support it
offers other groups America regards as terrorists. America's ambassador
in Iraq recently spoke darkly of "all options" being open regarding how
Syria might be punished.

Should the Security Council be presented with proof of the Assad
regime's complicity--or worse--in the Hariri assassination, and should
Damascus fail to hand over suspects for trial, Mr Assad's government is
sure to be punished by further isolation, and an internationalisation
of sanctions that are now unilaterally imposed by America. These would
serve only to intensify the unrest that has been building in Syria at
such ills as corruption and high unemployment. Whether the regime would
react to such pressures by reforming, lashing out or collapsing (if not
overthrown) is hard to predict. 

See this article with graphics and related items at http://www.economist.com/agenda/displaystory.cfm?story_id=5016428&fsrc=nwl

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