[Mb-civic] From Washington, a Story About a Killer Flu - New York Times

[William Swiggard]

 From Washington, a Story About a Killer Flu
David Reinfurt/O-R-G

By GARDINER HARRIS, New York Times
Published: October 16, 2005

THERE was the killer asteroid scare that spawned two big-budget 1998 
movies. Anxiety about SARS in Canada led to a movie-of-the-week last 
summer. And this week, the Bush administration is expected to release 
its pandemic flu plan, which could generate its own movie epic.

The New York Times obtained a draft of the plan, dated Sept. 30. No one 
would confuse the 381-page document with a screenplay, but pages 45 
through 47, the section titled "Pandemic Scenario - Origin and Initial 
Spread," are gripping. They describe a flu epidemic moving from a 
village in Asia to the United States, where it causes panic and as many 
as 1.9 million deaths.

The plan's writers might have been inspired by John M. Barry's 
hair-raising history of the 1918 flu epidemic, "The Great Influenza," 
which President Bush, in an Oct. 5 press conference, said he had 
recently read. After criticism of his response to Hurricane Katrina, Mr. 
Bush, who said he was taking the risks of a pandemic "very seriously," 
has been eager to show that his administration is aggressively preparing 
for it. Top health officials, including Michael O. Leavitt, the 
secretary of health and human services, spent last week in Asia 
discussing avian flu preparations. On Friday, Mr. Leavitt called the 
newly confirmed spread of the disease to Turkey a "troubling sign." The 
administration is expected to ask Congress this week for $7.1 billion to 
respond to the threat.

Is a flu pandemic likely in the next few years? No one knows. The deadly 
H5N1 strain of avian flu does not currently spread from person to 
person, but the government's vision of what a pandemic would look like 
is grimly compelling. Excerpts from the document follow.

Act I: Illness Strikes a Village

In April of the current year, an outbreak of severe respiratory illness 
is identified in a small village in a country known to have experienced 
recent avian influenza disease. At least 25 cases have occurred, 
affecting all age groups. Several household clusters with infection of 
multiple family members are identified. Twenty patients have required 
hospitalization at the local provincial hospital, five of whom have died....

Specimens collected from several patients are sent to the World Health 
Organization ... and the Centers for Disease Control. C.D.C. determines 
that the isolates are of the avian subtype ... but that the viral genome 
had undergone changes consistent with an increased ability to spread 
between people.

The novel influenza virus begins to make headlines in every major 
newspaper and becomes the lead story on major news networks. Key United 
States government officials are briefed on a daily basis and 
surveillance is intensified throughout many countries....

The National Institutes of Health studies whether a vaccine developed 
against the avian viral strains provides some protection against the 
pandemic virus; and influenza manufacturers are placed on alert. 
Laboratory studies suggest that the vaccine developed previously for the 
avian strain will only provide partial protection against the new virus.

Over the next weeks, the W.H.O., with assistance from the United States 
and other governments, attempts to contain the outbreak but new cases 
continue to occur and to spread to neighboring countries.... Cases are 
reported in all age groups and case-fatality rates range from 2 percent 
to 15 percent, depending on the quality of medical care provided. Travel 
restrictions... are implemented at borders and quarantine stations.

Act II: An Airport in America

...continued at this URL:
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/16/weekinreview/16harris.html
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