[Mb-civic] FW: Global Intelligence Brief

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From: "Kiddie Zafar" <Kiddie at projector.ch>
Date: Wed, 1 Feb 2006 15:10:29 -0000
Subject: Global Intelligence Brief

Iran: A Turning Point Without Consequences

Summary




China, Russia, Britain, France and the United States reached a
decision late Jan. 30 to bring the Iranian nuclear issue before the
U.N. Security Council. Though Washington has signaled that the top
five global powers are united in their effort to contain the Iranian
nuclear threat, this new move still does not carry any real
consequences for Tehran.



Analysis 



Foreign ministers from China, Russia, Britain, France and the United
States came up with a proposal on the Iranian nuclear issue during a
late-night meeting Jan. 30 at the home of British Foreign Secretary
Jack Straw in London. The joint statement issued after the talks said
that the Feb. 2-3 emergency meeting of the International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors "should report to the security
council its decision on the steps required of Iran," but that no
action would be taken until an IAEA meeting scheduled for March 6. In
response, chief Iranian nuclear negotiator and Secretary of Iran's
Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani said, "We consider any
referral or report of Iran to the security council as the end of
diplomacy."



Though it appears that Iran's nuclear standoff with the West has just
reached a major breaking point, little has changed in reality.



The crisis meeting at the IAEA will become another  futile exercise
as Beijing, Moscow and New Delhi have vested interests in not being at
Washington's beck and call, and in delaying any action against Iran as
long as possible. The proposal that emerged out of the late-night
London talks essentially constitutes a compromise for the top five
global powers. Though China and Russia have presented a convincing
enough argument to delay any real action against Iran until an IAEA
meeting scheduled for March, the United States has given the
impression that this week's IAEA meeting will not be completely
worthless.



So what happens this week? It is highly unlikely the IAEA Board of
Governors will actually vote on a referral to the U.N. Security
Council, but for procedural reasons, the board has to hold a vote on
something at the conclusion of the meeting. The vote will probably end
up deciding the steps needed before actually referring Iran to the
security council in March, when a report is to be presented on Iran's
nuclear status.



With the glacial pace of bureaucracy working in Tehran's favor, the
Iranian regime still has ample time to steer the nuclear dispute
toward negotiations. As expected, Tehran followed up its stream of
bellicose remarks with conciliatory statements and actions to create
the impression that the regime is interested in reaching a negotiated
settlement on its right to nuclear power. Iran is planning on
submitting a compromise plan to the European Union in which Tehran
would work with the IAEA to determine the extent to which Tehran could
enrich uranium for research purposes only, accept Moscow's offer to
have the enrichment done in Russia with certain modifications, cease
feeding uranium hexafluoride gas into centrifuges before Feb. 2, and
resume talks with the Europeans for a maximum of two years. If no
agreement is reached during that time, Iran would deem itself entitled
to begin industrial-scale enrichment. A senior IAEA diplomat said Jan.
30 that Iran has also permitted U.N. nuclear inspectors to test
machines capable of uranium enrichment at the Lavisan military site, a
former nuclear research facility. And on Jan. 31, Iran gave the IAEA
documents containing the procedure to develop nuclear warheads from
fissile uranium. 



Through this series of concessions, Tehran is working to advance its
case that it is not moving toward confrontation and is in fact willing
to cooperate, even though it is not willing to give up its right to
nuclear technology. The Iranian regime is intent on undermining
support for any U.S.-led action against it by showing that it is in
compliance with international regulations, and that the West is
singling Iran out on the issue. These conciliatory moves also help its
allies in Beijing, Moscow and New Delhi to strengthen their opposition
to taking action against Iran while the regime is still cooperating.
Russian and Chinese diplomatic officials already are on their way to
Tehran to continue the negotiations.



Iran will continue this cycle of confrontational statements and
concessions through March as it uses diplomatic maneuvers to keep
China, Russia and India on its side of the dispute. In the meantime,
U.S. President George W. Bush now has new material to demonstrate his
tough stance on Iran in time for his Jan. 31 State of the Union
address.



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