[Mb-civic] FW: Interesting

[Golsorkhi]

------ Forwarded Message
From: "Kiddie Zafar" <Kiddie at projector.ch>
Date: Sat, 4 Feb 2006 11:36:35 -0000
Subject: Interesting



Lebanon: Hezbollah's New Status and the Implications for Hamas

Summary




Lebanon's Shiite Cabinet ministers announced an end to their
government boycott Feb. 2 after Prime Minister Fouad al-Siniora
acceded to the ministers' demand to recognize the radical Islamist
group Hezbollah as a national resistance group, not a militia.
Hezbollah has successfully exerted its control over the Lebanese
government in its bid to avoid disarmament, giving Hamas new
ammunition for its own political agenda.



Analysis



After nearly two months of paralyzing the Lebanese government, five
Shiite lawmakers belonging to the Hezbollah and Amal movements called
off their boycott of the Lebanese Cabinet on Feb. 2. The decision to
end the Shiite members' suspension of the Cabinet was a result of
intense negotiations involving Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed
Hassan Nasrallah, Speaker of the Parliament and Amal leader Nabih
Berri, Prime Minister Fouad al-Siniora and Saad al-Hariri -- Lebanon's
leading Sunni political figure and son of the former prime minister.



After this lengthy political stagnation, Hezbollah got exactly what it
wanted and Washington's efforts to push Beirut to fully implement U.N.
Resolution 1559 to disarm all Lebanese militias -- namely Hezbollah --
were dispelled. Al-Siniora ultimately conceded to Hezbollah's demands
and stated in parliament that Hezbollah's Islamic Resistance armed
wing should be called "only by its name," giving Hezbollah a
convenient escape route from disarming.



A dispute is brewing  within Hezbollah  as the movement struggles to
retain its image as a resistance movement while demonstrating that it
is working in Lebanon's national interests through its political
channels, as opposed to being a proxy owned by Iran and operated by
Syria. The Shiite bloc in Beirut has now successfully depressurized
the debate while demonstrating that Syria still has powerful assets in
Beirut to serve its own interests; the Shiite ministers essentially
put the Lebanese government under lockdown as it countered U.S. and
French efforts to internationalize the ongoing probe into the Feb. 14
assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri.



Following the Shiite ministers' announcement that their boycott was
over, Hezbollah reasserted its credentials as a resistance movement by
firing at an Israeli army post at Roueissat el-Alam in retaliation for
the killing of a 15-year-old Lebanese shepherd by Israeli Defense
Forces troops. Israeli warplanes followed the attack Feb. 3 with a
heavy air raid in the disputed Shebaa Farms region along the border,
calling the Hezbollah attack "a serious provocation Š which is
tolerated by the Lebanese government." The border clashes between
Hezbollah and the Israeli army are unlikely to escalate any further at
this time, but Tel Aviv is well aware that the Lebanese government
lacks the ability and willingness to contain its militant arm.



Hezbollah's political maneuverings also provide Hamas with a precedent
to avoid disarming as it pursues its own political agenda. Now that
Hamas has become the major political force in the Palestinian
political arena, the movement's efforts will be focused on folding its
militant wing into the official security apparatus of the Palestinian
National Authority to circumvent Western pressure to disarm.



Hamas and Hezbollah both realize that political moderation comes at a
price. That said, there are still a number of options at their
disposal to avoid disarmament.


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