[Mb-civic] Handful of Races May Tip Control of Congress - Washington Post

[William Swiggard]

Handful of Races May Tip Control of Congress

By Dan Balz and Chris Cillizza
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, February 6, 2006; A01

In Pennsylvania, Sen. Rick Santorum (R) has been running behind his 
challenger for months. In Montana, Sen. Conrad Burns (R), linked to the 
Jack Abramoff scandal, is on the defensive. In Ohio, Sen. Mike DeWine 
(R) is struggling to overcome a toxic environment of scandals that have 
tarnished the state Republican Party.

Not since 1994 has the party in power -- in this case the Republicans -- 
faced such a discouraging landscape in a midterm election. President 
Bush is weaker than he was just a year ago, a majority of voters in 
recent polls have signaled their desire for a change in direction, and 
Democrats outpoll Republicans on which party voters think is more 
capable of handling the country's biggest problems.

The result is a midterm already headed toward what appears to be an 
inevitable conclusion: Democrats are poised to gain seats in the House 
and in the Senate for the first time since 2000. The difference between 
modest gains (a few seats in the Senate and fewer than 10 in the House) 
and significant gains (half a dozen in the Senate and well more than a 
dozen in the House) is where the battle for control of Congress will be 
fought.

The contest begins with Republicans holding 231 House seats and 
Democrats holding 201, with one Democrat-leaning independent and two 
vacancies, split between the parties. Democrats need to gain 15 seats to 
dethrone the GOP majority. In the Senate, Republicans hold 55 seats to 
the Democrats' 44, with one Democrat-leaning independent. Democrats need 
six more seats to take power.

What makes the year ahead compelling is the tension between two powerful 
factors: the broader political environment plainly favors Democrats, but 
the on-the-ground realities of many races give Republicans an advantage 
as they seek to preserve their majorities.

History dictates a certain modesty about predictions. Early in 1994, few 
foresaw the size of the Republican landslide-in-the-making. By November, 
the anti-incumbent mood overwhelmed even well-prepared candidates. If 
the public mood deteriorates further this year, Republicans could be 
swamped; if not, the GOP could be adequately equipped to wage trench 
warfare state by state and district by district and leave Washington's 
current balance of power intact.

At this point, the biggest challenge facing the Democrats is the narrow 
size of the battlefield. To win control of the House or Senate, 
Democrats must either capture the overwhelming percentage of genuinely 
competitive contests or find a way to put more races "in play" than is 
the case now.

Redistricting after the 2000 census left most House districts safely in 
the hands of one party or another. In 2004, just 32 districts were won 
with less than 55 percent of the vote -- giving incumbents a grip on 
power, said Rhodes Cook, an independent analyst.

Jim Jordan, a Democratic strategist and former executive director of the 
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said the odds strongly favor 
gains by the Democrats but not necessarily Democratic takeovers. "From 
almost every standpoint -- the national political environment, the state 
political environments, recruiting, retention, fundraising -- Democratic 
candidates are in exceedingly strong shape," he said. "Because of the 
map, a flip in either chamber is significantly harder, but you can 
certainly see how it's done."

Republicans and Democrats have adopted contrasting strategies in the 
race for the House. Democrats hope to nationalize the elections around 
the issues of corruption and dissatisfaction with Bush. Republicans want 
their candidates to run strictly local races. "Incumbents don't get beat 
because there's a bad national environment," said Carl Forti, 
communications director for the National Republican Congressional 
Committee (NRCC).

But Joe Gaylord, top political lieutenant to Speaker Newt Gingrich 
(R-Ga.) during the 1994 takeover, said Republicans should not 
underestimate the impact of national tides. "If you have mechanics 
without message, you have no motivation," he said. "The danger is in a 
bad year, as the Democrats would remember from 1994, is that you have 
supporters who stay home."

Party operatives devoted much of 2005 to fundraising and candidate 
recruitment, with the political climate helping Democrats in both areas. 
Democratic strategists said Bush's weakness helped attract a number of 
top-tier candidates, while Democratic campaign committees, particularly 
the DSCC, outperformed expectations on the fundraising front.

The DSCC ended last year with about $15 million more in the bank than 
the NRSC. On the House side, the NRCC raised $22 million more than its 
Democratic counterpart, but ended the year with just $4 million more in 
its campaign coffers. Looming over all of these financial calculations 
is the sizable $28.5 million cash edge the Republican National Committee 
has over the Democratic National Committee, which could wipe out other 
Democratic fundraising successes in 2005.

If there is a wave that carries Democrats to power in the Senate, it 
must begin in Democratic strongholds of the East, Pennsylvania and Rhode 
Island, before sweeping west through such traditionally GOP-leaning 
states as Montana, Ohio, Missouri and Arizona. Democrats are most 
optimistic about defeating Republican incumbents in the first four of 
these half-dozen states. Beating the incumbents in the other two looks 
more difficult.

Republicans hope to insulate themselves from expected losses by 
targeting two of the Democrats' three open Senate seats -- Maryland and 
Minnesota -- and are talking up their chances against three Democratic 
incumbents: Sens. Robert C. Byrd (W.Va.), Robert Menendez (N.J.) and Ben 
Nelson (Neb.).

The marquee Senate contest this year is in Pennsylvania, where Santorum 
is being challenged in his bid for a third term by state Treasurer Bob 
Casey Jr. (D). Santorum's high-profile conservatism combined with Bush's 
flagging numbers in the Democratic-leaning state have given Casey a 
clear edge in polls the past six months. But Casey has yet to define 
himself as a Senate candidate, preferring to stay away from hot-button 
issues and focus on Santorum.

In Rhode Island, Sen. Lincoln D. Chafee (R) faces a two-front battle. He 
will face off against Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey, who is running as a 
populist outsider, in the Sept. 12 GOP primary. Should he advance to the 
general election, Chafee will face one of two Democrats: former state 
attorney general Sheldon Whitehouse, the current front-runner for his 
party's nomination, or Secretary of State Matt Brown.

Republican strategists are more concerned about Chafee's ability to win 
the primary than the general election. One of the most moderate 
Republicans in the Senate, Chafee must win over a significant portion of 
his party's conservative base to defeat Laffey in a primary that is open 
only to registered Republicans and independents. Most strategists say 
any Republican but Chafee would be hard-pressed to win the general 
election in a heavily Democratic state.

Two other Republican senators appear to be in real trouble at the 
moment, as two different scandals echo through the election year.

In Montana, Burns has been hurt by reports detailing his financial and 
staff ties to disgraced lobbyist Abramoff. Democrats have already run 
three ads hitting Burns on the scandal. Burns has responded with a 
commercial insisting that Abramoff never influenced him. Republicans say 
that Burns is ramping up his campaign now and dismiss chatter about his 
potential retirement.

Nevertheless, the scandal publicity has dampened Burns's reelection 
prospects. He holds narrow leads over state Auditor John Morrison and 
state Sen. Jon Tester, the two Democrats seeking to unseat him in November.

DeWine, on the other hand, is struggling in his reelection race because 
of GOP scandals in the Buckeye State, which have scuffed the Republican 
brand in Ohio even though DeWine is not personally implicated. Outgoing 
Gov. Bob Taft (R) was convicted of a misdemeanor offense last year for 
his role in the scandals, and his approval ratings are now below 20 percent.

Not all is gloomy for DeWine, however, as Democrats seem headed toward a 
nasty May primary that could leave the opposition drained. That contest 
pits Rep. Sherrod Brown against Iraq war veteran Paul Hackett, who 
excited liberal bloggers last year with a narrower-than-expected loss in 
a congressional special election.

Even if Democrats defeated those four vulnerable Republicans, they would 
have to beat two somewhat less vulnerable Republicans, Arizona Sen. Jon 
Kyl and Missouri Sen. James M. Talent, to pick up the six seats needed 
for control. Or they would have to beat one of the two and count on Rep. 
Harold E. Ford Jr. (D) winning the Tennessee open seat vacated by 
retiring Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist.

At this point estimates of the number of genuinely competitive House 
races ranges from a low of 25 or 30 to as high as 40 in the most 
optimistic Democratic scenarios. Democrats' best opportunities will come 
in Republican-held open seats, with the three best prospects, according 
to both parties, in Arizona's 8th District, Colorado's 7th District and 
Iowa's 1st District.

But Republicans say they have opportunities to pick up seats in Ohio's 
6th and 13th districts, both of which are being vacated by Democratic 
members seeking statewide office.

Given recent trends, in which reelection rates have hovered around 95 
percent in the House, it is no easy task to beat a sitting member of 
Congress. Because of the Abramoff scandal, however, Democrats have two 
golden opportunities to oust embattled incumbents in Ohio and Texas.

Former House majority leader Tom DeLay (R-Tex.), who, in addition to his 
connections to Abramoff, is under indictment by an Austin grand jury, 
finds himself in what promises to be a close race against former 
representative Nick Lampson (D). Former Republican representative Steve 
Stockman's independent candidacy is another complicating factor for DeLay.

Ohio Rep. Robert W. Ney (R) appears to be at the center of the 
pay-to-play schemes of Abramoff and has been informed by federal 
investigators that he may be indicted. Ney has pledged to run regardless 
but is trailing his two little-known Democratic opponents in internal 
GOP surveys.

Indiana is another place to watch as GOP Reps. Michael E. Sodrel and 
John N. Hostettler both face extremely competitive Democratic challenges 
in districts that favor Republicans on the presidential level. Sodrel 
faces a rematch against Baron Hill (D), the incumbent he narrowly ousted 
in 2004. Hostettler -- who makes little effort to raise money and 
forswears political consultants in favor of a local network of 
conservative activists -- is being challenged by Vanderburgh County 
Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (D).

Among Democratic incumbents, Republican House strategists see Reps. John 
Barrow (Ga.), Melissa L. Bean (Ill.), Leonard L. Boswell (Iowa), Chet 
Edwards (Tex.) and Jim Marshall (Ga.) as beatable.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/02/05/AR2006020500773.html?nav=hcmodule
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