[Mb-civic] FW: Regime change in Iran

[Golsorkhi]

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From: Marathon Man <opssz at yahoo.com>
Date: Fri, 3 Feb 2006 12:22:30 -0800 (PST)
To: grgolsorkhi at earthlink.net
Subject: Regime change in Iran

  
Eye of the storm: For Iran, think regime change
  

     
 AMIR TAHERI, THE JERUSALEM POST  Feb. 1, 2006

  Remember Donald Rumsfeld's unknown unknowns? The US defense secretary used
the phrase in 2003 in the context of the controversy over Iraq's weapons of
mass destruction. More than three years later the Bush administration is
still paying a political price for basing its case for the liberation of
Iraq on those "unknown unknowns." It was always clear that the only way to
find out whether Saddam had WMDs was to topple him and seize control of his
secrets. And then, when the unknowns became known, there was always the
possibility that no WMDs would be found. The truth is that the case for
getting rid of Saddam had little need of those "unknown unknowns." That
Saddam  might have had WMDs in March 2003 was neither here nor there. It was
an established fact that he had used WMDs against Iran and his people on
many occasions. It was also clear that a regime like his could at any time
revive a WMD program. At the time there were enough "known knowns" that had
nothing to do with WMDs, to justify toppling Saddam a hundred times over.
To reduce the issue to WMDs was a mistake.  The question now is whether the
Bush administration is moving toward a new version of that mistake - this
time in the case of Iran.
 The "unknown unknowns" in the case of Iran concern its alleged project to
develop nuclear warheads.
 More than three years of Gaston-Alphonse diplomacy between Teheran and the
European Union trio of Britain, Germany and France has shown that this
"unknown" cannot become known through routine negotiations. Teheran insists
it is not developing nuclear weapons. The Europeans, however, want it to
confess that it has been lying, and to provide  evidence that it is not
doing what it has always said it was not doing.   Now imagine what would
happen if Teheran did admit that it had been lying and even produced
evidence that it had stopped the program it had always said it did not have.
Would anyone trust a regime that admits it had been lying for two decades?
What guarantee would there be that, while admitting that it had been lying
for 20 years, the Islamic Republic does not continue a clandestine program?
 There are only two ways to find out the answer for sure. One is for the
present Iranian regime to do what others - including South Africa and
Ukraine - did and invite the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to
help wind down and dismantle its nuclear program. Another way is regime
change in the hope that a new Iranian regime would either show that there
was no weapons program or, if one was found, do what South Africa and
Ukraine did. 
 Anyone with knowledge of Iranian politics would know that  the present
regime is unlikely to take that option.  So, we are left with one option:
regime change.  IN THAT connection three questions arise. The first is
whether or not there are enough "known knowns" to justify a regime change in
the eyes not only of the Iranian people but also of international community.
The answer is yes. The Islamic Republic has been and remains one of the
worst violators of human rights in the world. Proportional to its population
it holds more prisoners of conscience than any nation. It also tops the list
of nations in terms of the number of people executed, for political reasons
but on false charges of moral and other "deviations."
 The Islamic Republic denies the Iranian people the right to form trade
unions and political parties, and to field candidates of their choice in
elections. It limits the nation's political life to a few hundred
individuals who, despite personal rivalries, belong to the same ideological
stable. 
 The Islamic Republic's  oppressive policies, however, are not limited to
the political domain but also affect cultural, religious and economic
aspects of the nation's life.  A good part of Iran's literary and cultural
heritage is banned, while the Islamic Republic is the only place on earth
where scenes of auto da fe are regularly organized since 1983. All that, of
course, may be dismissed as "no business of ours" by the international
community.
 Fair enough, which brings us to the second question: what "known knowns"
could be cited to justify regime change in Teheran in the eyes of the
international community? We already know about Teheran's desire to wipe
Israel off the map "like a stain of shame on Islam's purity," to quote
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. We also know that next week Teheran will host
the largest gathering of "rejectionists" from all over the world, including
leaders of Hamas. On the agenda is "an Islamic strategy to destroy the
Jewish state and recover Palestine for  Islam." ANOTHER "known known" is
that the terror jamboree in Teheran also includes a seminar to prove that
"the Holocaust is a Jewish fabrication to generate sympathy for Israel," to
quote Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, the regime's ideological rising star. More
than 100 "scholars" from 40 countries are scheduled to attend. Teheran has
also issued an invitation to British Prime Minister Tony Blair to come and
"find out that the Holocaust never happened." WELL, THE so-called
international community may again dismiss all that as "no business of ours"
because the only target appears to be Israel.
 But then what about what the Islamic Republic is doing in Iraq and
Afghanistan, to mention just two examples of Teheran's attempt at exporting
its Khomeinist ideology? Teheran has also revived contacts with dissident
Shi'ite exiles from Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. And last December Teheran
encouraged radical Shi'ites in Kuwait to form a party to oppose
"American-inspired democratization." All that  fits into what Interior
Minister Mostafa Pour-Muhammadi has described as "master plan for a
pan-Shi'ite caliphate" covering part of the Balkans, Turkey, the Middle
East, the Caucasus, Central Asia, Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf, with
Iran's "Supreme Guide" as the caliph.   Last August Ahmadinejad presented a
broader version of that strategy to the Islamic Majlis (parliament) as his
government's action plan. In it he said the Islamic Republic had to prepare
for a clash of civilizations between Islam under Iranian leadership and the
West led by the United States. Ahmadinejad has asserted that the Islamic
Republic intends to resist "George W. Bush's plans for an American-style
Middle East," and would fight to impose its Khomeinist model. He has
dismissed the Arab states of the Persian Gulf as "petrol stations, not real
countries" and called for an "Islamic revolution" in Egypt and North Africa.
 Teheran is also using Hizbullah, which it founded and controls, to
frustrate Lebanon's hopes of democratization.  And last month, in a trip to
Damascus, Ahmadinejad offered a broader interpretation of the Iran-Syria
Defense Cooperation Agreement of 2002 to commit Teheran to supporting
President Bashar Assad's beleaguered regime against its "internal and
external enemies." According to Damascus sources, he asked Assad to "stand
firm until Bush and the Americans leave the Middle East." The immediate
effect of Ahmadinejad's visit was a hardening of the Syrian position vis-
-vis the United Nations' investigation of the murder of former Lebanese
Premier Rafik Hariri. One thing is certain: the Khomeinist regime is
determined to reshape the region and, if possible, the world after its own
fashion and will use whatever it takes, including a nuclear arsenal, to
pursue its design. For those who, for whatever reason, do not like that
design the only option is regime change in Teheran.
Which brings us to the third question: does anyone have the stomach  for
such an enterprise? Well, that is the question.
  
 
 

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