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Mon Feb 20 19:33:22 PST 2006

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ISRAEL AND THE PALESTINIANS
Feb 16th 2006  

The world is divided over how to deal with the Palestinian Authority
under Hamas 

AN ARTICLE this week in the NEW YORK TIMES, alleging that the United
States and Israel are hatching a plot to destabilise a Hamas-run
Palestinian Authority (PA) by starving it of funds, caused a minor
furore--and highlighted divisions over what to do about the Islamist
party's resounding victory over the secular Fatah in last month's
general election. An American diplomat was quoted as saying that the
article was planted mischievously by European diplomats, while a
European diplomat suggested it was an Israeli attempt to scare Hamas
into moderating its stance. 

The truth is that the outside world knows what it wants, but cannot
agree on how to get what it wants. The Middle East "quartet"--America,
Russia, the European Union and the United Nations--says Hamas must end
violence, sign up to a two-state solution and accept prior agreements
made by the PA. What the members of the quartet cannot agree on is
whether--or how--to use the lever of money to enforce those demands. 

The result is general confusion. While harder-line elements in the
American and Israeli administrations may want to turn off the funding
taps, others, especially in Europe, just want to reroute the cash to
circumvent rules restricting aid to terrorist groups. This week, for
instance, the EU proposed paying the PA's utility bills directly to its
Israeli suppliers. There is talk of channelling all cash through the
office of Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president--though that, say
most, looks like a particularly flimsy fig leaf. Some infrastructure
projects, says an American contractor, could be reclassified as
"essential humanitarian assistance" and be provided by the UN. Donors,
especially American ones, may use the UN and World Bank, not bound by
restrictions, as conduits to sidestep domestic political pressure. Or
maybe they will start applying the same pressure to those agencies.
Nobody yet knows. 

But the largest shortfall is going to be the $55m or so in revenues
that Israel collects on the PA's behalf. Israel this week announced
that transfers will stop after the new Hamas-dominated parliament
convenes on February 18th, even before it forms a government. 

The fear is that Hamas may turn to sources the West cannot control. Two
weeks ago Hamas was sounding conciliatory, but this week Mahmoud Zahar,
one of its hard men, told America to keep its "satanic money". Hamas
leaders are now on a regional fund-raising tour: there is no shortage
of donors worldwide who have helped it, and even tided the PA over in
previous crises, though for how long they could plug the gap is
unclear. America could press Arab leaders and banks not to provide or
transfer money, and some might agree, but that would further inflame an
already angry Arab street. In any case there are many informal
networks--through Islamic charities in various countries, business
people, or smugglers--that could let cash trickle through. Russia,
which has invited Hamas leaders for talks (to Israel's fury), has a
large Muslim population which may offer conduits of its own. 

The confusion has also left the donors unsure how to deal with a series
of struggles for power within the PA itself. This week the outgoing
Fatah legislature defiantly bestowed on Mr Abbas the power to appoint
judges to a constitutional court, which could overturn laws: an attempt
to declaw Hamas, which would need to drum up a two-thirds majority in
parliament to undo it. "It's completely contrary to all the work that
we've put into reform and state-building," says a European diplomat,
noting that in Yasser Arafat's time everything was done to weaken the
president, "but we're letting them get away with it because it's
politically expedient."

Yet Mr Abbas may not be behind the move; he publicly blocked another
proposed law, which would have given him the power to dissolve
parliament. Nor does he seem to be encouraging the anti-corruption
witch-hunt that began after the election: his attorney-general
announced a series of probes (none new), the prime minister's office
shows sudden interest in foreign-designed anti-corruption ideas it had
ignored before, and lists of targets for prosecution are circulating in
the PA. 

In fact, such moves seem to be coming not from the top but from
officials acting alone, perhaps trying to ingratiate themselves with
the incoming government. Hamas has attacked Mr Abbas for appointing
Fatah officials to key civil-service posts, but it has been quietly
holding talks with top civil servants to ensure their co-operation.
"Everything", says a foreign contractor who works with the PA, "is
going green"--the colour of Hamas. 

See this article with graphics and related items at http://www.economist.com/world/africa/displaystory.cfm?story_id=5524608

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