No subject
Fri Feb 24 11:55:10 PST 2006
Good versus evil isn't a strategy
Bush's worldview fails to see that in the Middle East, power politics is =
the key.
By Madeleine Albright
March 24, 2006
THE BUSH administration's newly unveiled National Security Strategy =
might well be subtitled "The Irony of Iran." Three years after the =
invasion of Iraq and the invention of the phrase "axis of evil," the =
administration now highlights the threat posed by Iran =97 whose radical =
government has been vastly strengthened by the invasion of Iraq. This is =
more tragedy than strategy, and it reflects the Manichean approach this =
administration has taken to the world.
It is sometimes convenient, for purposes of rhetorical effect, for =
national leaders to talk of a globe neatly divided into good and bad. It =
is quite another, however, to base the policies of the world's most =
powerful nation upon that fiction. The administration's penchant for =
painting its perceived adversaries with the same sweeping brush has led =
to a series of unintended consequences.
For years, the president has acted as if Al Qaeda, Saddam Hussein's =
followers and Iran's mullahs were parts of the same problem. Yet, in the =
1980s, Hussein's Iraq and Iran fought a brutal war. In the 1990s, Al =
Qaeda's allies murdered a group of Iranian diplomats. For years, Osama =
bin Laden ridiculed Hussein, who persecuted Sunni and Shiite religious =
leaders alike. When Al Qaeda struck the U.S. on 9/11, Iran condemned the =
attacks and later participated constructively in talks on Afghanistan. =
The top leaders in the new Iraq =97 chosen in elections that George W. =
Bush called "a magic moment in the history of liberty" =97 are friends =
of Iran. When the U.S. invaded Iraq, Bush may have thought he was =
striking a blow for good over evil, but the forces unleashed were =
considerably more complex.
The administration is now divided between those who understand this =
complexity and those who do not. On one side, there are ideologues, such =
as the vice president, who apparently see Iraq as a useful precedent for =
Iran. Meanwhile, officials on the front lines in Iraq know they cannot =
succeed in assembling a workable government in that country without the =
tacit blessing of Iran; hence, last week's long-overdue announcement of =
plans for a U.S.-Iranian dialogue on Iraq =97 a dialogue that if =
properly executed might also lead to progress on other issues.
Although this is not an administration known for taking advice, I offer =
three suggestions. The first is to understand that although we all want =
to "end tyranny in this world," that is a fantasy unless we begin to =
solve hard problems. Iraq is increasingly a gang war that can be solved =
in one of two ways: by one side imposing its will or by all the =
legitimate players having a piece of the power. The U.S. is no longer =
able to control events in Iraq, but it can be useful as a referee.
Second, the Bush administration should disavow any plan for regime =
change in Iran =97 not because the regime should not be changed but =
because U.S. endorsement of that goal only makes it less likely. In =
today's warped political environment, nothing strengthens a radical =
government more than Washington's overt antagonism. It also is common =
sense to presume that Iran will be less willing to cooperate in Iraq and =
to compromise on nuclear issues if it is being threatened with =
destruction. As for Iran's choleric and anti-Semitic new president, he =
will be swallowed up by internal rivals if he is not unwittingly propped =
up by external foes.
Third, the administration must stop playing solitaire while Middle East =
and Persian Gulf leaders play poker. Bush's "march of freedom" is not =
the big story in the Muslim world, where Shiite Muslims suddenly have =
more power than they have had in 1,000 years; it is not the big story in =
Lebanon, where Iran is filling the vacuum left by Syria; it is not the =
story among Palestinians, who voted =97 in Western eyes =97 freely, and =
wrongly; it is not even the big story in Iraq, where the top three =
factions in the recent elections were all supported by decidedly =
undemocratic militias.
In the long term, the future of the Middle East may well be determined =
by those in the region dedicated to the hard work of building democracy. =
I certainly hope so. But hope is not a policy. In the short term, we =
must recognize that the region will be shaped primarily by fairly =
ruthless power politics in which the clash between good and evil will be =
swamped by differences between Sunni and Shiite, Arab and Persian, Arab =
and Kurd, Kurd and Turk, Hashemite and Saudi, secular and religious and, =
of course, Arab and Jew. This is the world, the president pledges in his =
National Security Strategy, that "America must continue to lead." =
Actually, it is the world he must begin to address =97 before it is too =
late.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------=
-------
MADELEINE ALBRIGHT, secretary of State from 1997 to 2001, is the author =
of "The Mighty and the Almighty -- Reflections on America, God, and =
World Affairs," to be published by Harper Collins in May. This essay =
appears by special arrangement with the Financial Times
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<TBODY>
<TR vAlign=3Dbottom>
<TD><A href=3D"http://www.latimes.com/"></A></TD>
<TD><!-- Ad Space: =
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<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I'm looking forward to reading her book "The Mighty and the =
Almighty -=20
Reflections on America, God and World Affairs"</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Harold</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 1em; MARGIN-RIGHT: 1em"><U><FONT=20
color=3D#800080></FONT></U><U><FONT color=3D#800080></FONT></U><BR>
<DIV class=3Dbody><I>From the Los Angeles Times</I></DIV>
<H1>Good versus evil isn't a strategy</H1>
<DIV class=3Dstorysubhead>Bush's worldview fails to see that in the =
Middle East,=20
power politics is the key.</DIV>By Madeleine Albright<BR><BR>March 24,=20
2006<BR><BR>THE BUSH administration's newly unveiled National Security =
Strategy=20
might well be subtitled "The Irony of Iran." Three years after the =
invasion of=20
Iraq and the invention of the phrase "axis of evil," the administration =
now=20
highlights the threat posed by Iran =97 whose radical government has =
been vastly=20
strengthened by the invasion of Iraq. This is more tragedy than =
strategy, and it=20
reflects the Manichean approach this administration has taken to the=20
world.<BR><BR>It is sometimes convenient, for purposes of rhetorical =
effect, for=20
national leaders to talk of a globe neatly divided into good and bad. It =
is=20
quite another, however, to base the policies of the world's most =
powerful nation=20
upon that fiction. The administration's penchant for painting its =
perceived=20
adversaries with the same sweeping brush has led to a series of =
unintended=20
consequences.<BR><BR>For years, the president has acted as if Al Qaeda, =
Saddam=20
Hussein's followers and Iran's mullahs were parts of the same problem. =
Yet, in=20
the 1980s, Hussein's Iraq and Iran fought a brutal war. In the 1990s, Al =
Qaeda's=20
allies murdered a group of Iranian diplomats. For years, Osama bin Laden =
ridiculed Hussein, who persecuted Sunni and Shiite religious leaders =
alike. When=20
Al Qaeda struck the U.S. on 9/11, Iran condemned the attacks and later=20
participated constructively in talks on Afghanistan. The top leaders in =
the new=20
Iraq =97 chosen in elections that George W. Bush called "a magic moment =
in the=20
history of liberty" =97 are friends of Iran. When the U.S. invaded Iraq, =
Bush may=20
have thought he was striking a blow for good over evil, but the forces =
unleashed=20
were considerably more complex.<BR><BR>The administration is now divided =
between=20
those who understand this complexity and those who do not. On one side, =
there=20
are ideologues, such as the vice president, who apparently see Iraq as a =
useful=20
precedent for Iran. Meanwhile, officials on the front lines in Iraq know =
they=20
cannot succeed in assembling a workable government in that country =
without the=20
tacit blessing of Iran; hence, last week's long-overdue announcement of =
plans=20
for a U.S.-Iranian dialogue on Iraq =97 a dialogue that if properly =
executed might=20
also lead to progress on other issues.<BR><BR>Although this is not an=20
administration known for taking advice, I offer three suggestions. The =
first is=20
to understand that although we all want to "end tyranny in this world," =
that is=20
a fantasy unless we begin to solve hard problems. Iraq is increasingly a =
gang=20
war that can be solved in one of two ways: by one side imposing its will =
or by=20
all the legitimate players having a piece of the power. The U.S. is no =
longer=20
able to control events in Iraq, but it can be useful as a=20
referee.<BR><BR>Second, the Bush administration should disavow any plan =
for=20
regime change in Iran =97 not because the regime should not be changed =
but because=20
U.S. endorsement of that goal only makes it less likely. In today's =
warped=20
political environment, nothing strengthens a radical government more =
than=20
Washington's overt antagonism. It also is common sense to presume that =
Iran will=20
be less willing to cooperate in Iraq and to compromise on nuclear issues =
if it=20
is being threatened with destruction. As for Iran's choleric and =
anti-Semitic=20
new president, he will be swallowed up by internal rivals if he is not=20
unwittingly propped up by external foes.<BR><BR>Third, the =
administration must=20
stop playing solitaire while Middle East and Persian Gulf leaders play =
poker.=20
Bush's "march of freedom" is not the big story in the Muslim world, =
where Shiite=20
Muslims suddenly have more power than they have had in 1,000 years; it =
is not=20
the big story in Lebanon, where Iran is filling the vacuum left by =
Syria; it is=20
not the story among Palestinians, who voted =97 in Western eyes =97 =
freely, and=20
wrongly; it is not even the big story in Iraq, where the top three =
factions in=20
the recent elections were all supported by decidedly undemocratic=20
militias.<BR><BR>In the long term, the future of the Middle East may =
well be=20
determined by those in the region dedicated to the hard work of building =
democracy. I certainly hope so. But hope is not a policy. In the short =
term, we=20
must recognize that the region will be shaped primarily by fairly =
ruthless power=20
politics in which the clash between good and evil will be swamped by =
differences=20
between Sunni and Shiite, Arab and Persian, Arab and Kurd, Kurd and =
Turk,=20
Hashemite and Saudi, secular and religious and, of course, Arab and Jew. =
This is=20
the world, the president pledges in his National Security Strategy, that =
"America must continue to lead." Actually, it is the world he must begin =
to=20
address =97 before it is too late.<BR><BR>
<HR width=3D"30%">
<BR><I>MADELEINE ALBRIGHT, secretary of State from 1997 to 2001, is the =
author=20
of "The Mighty and the Almighty -- Reflections on America, God, and =
World=20
Affairs," to be published by Harper Collins in May. This essay appears =
by=20
special arrangement with the Financial =
Times</I></DIV></FONT></BODY></HTML>
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