[Mb-civic] Speak Softly and Carry a Smaller Stick By ANDREW KOHUT

[Michael Butler]

The New York Times
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March 24, 2006
Op-Ed Contributor
Speak Softly and Carry a Smaller Stick
By ANDREW KOHUT

Washington

WE shouldn't allow isolationism and protectionism to overwhelm us," said
President Bush in his press conference on Tuesday, building on the concerns
that he expressed in his State of the Union address about Americans turning
inward.

Recent opinion surveys affirm that isolationist sentiment has increased in
recent years. Notably, a survey by my center and the Council on Foreign
Relations last fall reported that the percentage of the public who said that
the United States should "mind its own business internationally and let
other countries get along the best they can on their own" rose to levels
seen during the mid-1970's, following the Vietnam War, and in the 1990's
after the cold war ended. And a companion poll of opinion leaders found that
they, too, had become less supportive of the United States playing a world
leadership role.

But while these trends represent significant shifts in attitudes, it would
be a mistake to conclude that this country is becoming isolationist. There
is no sign that most Americans want the United States to turn its back on
the world or that anti-foreign sentiment in this country is rising.
Discontent with Mr. Bush's policies, notably on Iraq, has led to widespread
public frustration. And while it has also created more isolationists, they
remain a minority.

The number of Pew respondents agreeing that the United States should mind
its own business and let other countries get along as best they can climbed
to 42 percent last year from 34 percent in 2004. Agreement with this
statement has been roughly this high only twice in the last four decades: in
1976 and in 1995. Now as then, however, most Americans continue to disagree
with this sentiment. And huge majorities, including many who express some
isolationist sentiments, believe that the United States should consider the
views of its allies in making foreign policy, and they acknowledge America's
leadership role in the world given its power.

Polls also find no rise in broad-based anti-foreign sentiment. Americans, in
fact, rate most countries more favorably than people in other countries rate
the United States. For example, a February Gallup survey showed 54 percent
of the public holding a favorable view of France and 79 percent a favorable
opinion of Germany. In contrast, just 41 percent of the Germans and 43
percent of the French expressed favorable views of the United States in last
year's Pew Global Attitudes Survey.

Further, there is no sign of increased alarm about rivals to the United
States. Americans are less inclined now than in the past to view China as an
adversary, and few express worries about its rising economic might. In
addition, Americans favor a stronger European Union and closer relations
with Europe. Fully 66 percent of Americans think the United States and
Western European partnership on security and diplomatic matters should
remain as close it has been the past. But only 26 percent of the French, 39
percent of the German and 42 percent of the British respondents felt the
same way in our survey.

Even right after the uproar over the bid by a Dubai-based company to take
over facilities in American ports, Americans continue to welcome foreign
investment and are much less worried about foreign ownership of American
companies than they were at the end of the 1980's. The rejection of the
Dubai ports deal appears to reflect not xenophobia but a deep concern about
Arab terrorism. While a narrow majority of respondents (53 percent) to a Pew
survey last week expressed a negative view of foreign investors owning
American companies, 70 percent did so in 1989, when high-profile
acquisitions of American businesses by Japanese companies provoked
widespread concern.

Moreover, by a 53 percent to 36 percent margin, Americans view foreign
companies investing in the United States as a good thing. And more
generally, two-thirds of Americans (66 percent) believe free trade is good
for the United States. This view is largely unchanged since 2000, even
though public concern about the outsourcing of American jobs has risen
sharply.

All this shows that America's current mood is less a rejection of the rest
of the world than it is a deep concern about terrorism and a growing
wariness about America's own assertive foreign policy. In particular, there
is little potential support for the use of force against Iran. And more
generally, the American experience in Iraq has reduced support for
pre-emptive wars. The belief that it is justifiable to use military force
against countries that threaten us but have not attacked us fell from 67
percent in May 2003, when the war in Iraq seemed a success, to just 52
percent last fall.

Unfortunately, the uptick in isolationism has the potential for dangerous
political consequences. In an election year, politicians in both parties
(each of which has significant isolationist minorities) may feel mistakenly
compelled to play to strong sentiments that do not reflect the beliefs of
the majority, urging the United States to pull back on its global
commitments, move away from free trade and close its borders. More
dangerously in this age of terrorism, the president may well need to pursue
policies that are assertive, if not costly. If he does, and even with the
best of intentions, he may not find the requisite support.

Andrew Kohut is the president of the Pew Research Center and co-author of
the forthcoming "Americans Against the World."

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