MB Civic

Iran at the Heart of the Crisis
By Pierre Rousselin
Le FigaroFriday 28 July 2006

Everyone acts as though the controversy over Iran’s nuclear activity and the war between Israel and Hezbollah were two unrelated events. But everyone knows that they are linked, and that they will be so more and more, and that one of the two crises will not be resolved without progress on the other.

To recognize this truth would be the first step toward clarity. Lebanon would win precious time against destruction and loss of human life. Because we see very well that calls for an unlikely agreement between the belligerents as a precondition for the dispatch of an international force only serve to temporize and push Israel to shut itself up in a military impasse.

That Hezbollah, like Hamas in Palestine, enjoys autonomy of action and decision with respect to Tehran changes nothing about Iran’s determination to see itself acknowledged as a major actor in the Muslim world and consequently in the conflict with Israel. That aspiration transcends the nature of the regime. The refusal to take Iran into account, especially on the part of the United States, explains the impasse in which the Iranian nuclear issue finds itself.

One may be sorry that the Islamic Republic has profited from the fall of Saddam Hussein and the surge in oil prices to impose itself on the regional scene. Not recognizing it leads to an accumulation of crises ever more costly, one after another, for Western interests. The longer we wait, the higher the price to pay will be.

Other conflicts in Lebanon found an ephemeral solution when Syria was involved in them. But what an about-face that would be! Wasn’t the end of the Syrian occupation the sole diplomatic success in the Middle East for a long time? Syria is no longer what it was. By placing itself in Tehran’s orbit, it has lost its autonomy of decision-making. It is too fragile, too divided to serve as a recourse.

So we come back to Iran, which has filled the void Syria’s withdrawal left in Lebanon by consolidating its influence over Hezbollah, helping it take root: politically, and – as we size it up today – militarily. The militia, strongly armed and organized by the Guardians of the Revolution, is, obviously, a card in Iran’s game.

What is the international community waiting for to sound out Tehran? Does the Islamic Republic link the nuclear issue and the situation with Lebanon? Are there internal divisions between the extremists, led by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and the guide of the revolution, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei? It would be good to know. The former ambassador to Paris, Sadegh Kharrazi, a moderate personality, has just given an indication by asserting that the Israeli offensive compromises an agreement on the nuclear issue.

With Tehran, the policy of confrontation followed by Washington has too long buttressed the radicals. Pretending to ignore Iran is not a solution.