Andre de Borchgrave, US Dilemma by John Hamre
I thought this was such a brilliant analysis of the US dilemma by John Hamre, the President of CSIS that I thought I should move it on to my worldwide readers.
Arnaud de Borchgrave
CSIS MEMORANDUM
To: CSIS Board of Trustees, Advisers, and Friends
From: John J. Hamre
Date: June 23, 2011 (Number 348. Two pages.)
Re: The Underlying Cause of Our Political Crisis
Honestly, this memo is more for my non-American friends who always ask me these days, “Why
can’t you Americans make a decision and get on top of your problems? This isn’t the America
we remember.” I hear some variation on that question every day. It is the product of the
particular path our politics has taken over the past 30 years.
Every 10 years, America takes a census to determine population size and distribution, and then
adjusts congressional districts to reflect the changes. In the majority of states, the redistricting is
done by politicians (guided by computer-laden political operatives) to design congressional
districts favorable to the ruling party. Both political parties have engineered for themselves
“safe” districts where political bias is sufficient to ensure the party candidate wins in the general
election. As a result, the only election that matters in 80% of the districts is primary elections,
where party loyalists rule the day.
This explains the polarization of American politics where Republicans represent conservatives
and Democrats represent liberals. No one represents the 40% of the electorate that considers
itself moderate independents. In many states they are not even allowed to vote in the primaries.
When it comes to national politics, about 20-25% call themselves liberals, and 35-40% call
themselves conservatives. For presidential elections, no one can get elected only with their base
voters. Any successful candidate must also win the majority of moderate independents.
So here is the problem.
Moderate independents want sensible answers to the nation’s problems. The respective liberal
and conservative “base” voters want ideological answers. And President Obama and
Congressional Republicans are trying to find a compromise that retains the loyalty of their base,
but wins the confidence of moderate pragmatists.
President Obama could assure his re-election by striking a sensible deal with Congressional
Republicans. But in the process he would likely undercut the prospects of Democrat candidates
running for office in the Congress.
Republicans have just the reverse challenge. They could guarantee their dominance of the
Congress if they compromise with President Obama, but sacrifice their candidate for president in
the 2012 campaign.
That is the central paradox that has brought our politics to a standstill. Both parties are groping
for a tactical solution to a strategic problem.
Will we find a grand compromise to move the country forward? Maybe, but the underlying root
causes of this problem are pulling us in the reverse direction. The prevailing thinking in
Washington think tank circles is that we will find a solution only when the crisis becomes
intolerable. Good grief. I can hardly stand it now.
What I find ironic is that I honestly believe that two-thirds of the voters will support a sensible
compromise if politicians will ever give them one. What is wrong with our system when two-
thirds of the voters are forced to the outside while politicians pander to the one-third that
populates the fringes of the two parties?
When I finish this little explanation to my foreign friends they usually stare back with a blank
look. The world wants a thoughtful American leadership, and they can’t believe that we have
become so self-absorbed.
Last night over dinner a very wise foreign-born American friend asked me, “Do you think
America is still relevant to the rest of the world?” His question stunned me to silence. I blurted
out “Yes, of course” and he quietly asked, “Where? And in what way?”
It is hard to find an answer to his question if we can’t find a way to clean up our own domestic
mess.
I fully expect that I have offended many of you with this note. Please drop me a note at
JHamre@csis.org. I am needing encouragement and correction these days.
END
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