[Mb-civic] Across State, Kerry Backers Sense a Shift By Michael D. Shear Washin gton Post

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    Across State, Kerry Backers Sense a Shift
    By Michael D. Shear
    Washington Post

     Friday 30 July 2004
 Echoing Warner's words, Democrats think nominee can upend decades of GOP
domination.

    Democrats who gathered last night in bars and restaurants and at small
house parties across Virginia to watch John F. Kerry accept their party's
nomination bubbled with anticipation at the possibility that, finally, their
vote for president might just matter again.

     Earlier, Virginia Gov. Mark R. Warner (D) told a national audience what
he and the leaders of the Massachusetts senator's campaign have been saying
to pundits and reporters all week in Boston: that Virginia, which has not
gone for a Democratic presidential candidate in four decades, is in play.

     "Moses wandered in the desert for 40 years," Warner said in his
convention speech. "Virginia has been wandering in the Republican desert for
40 years. But let me tell you: This Bush can't lead us to the promised land.
This year, our wandering is over."

     At Uncle Louie's in Norfolk, home to the world's largest naval base,
Kerry supporters crowded around televisions to see the first Vietnam War
veteran to become a major party nominee. It is at places such as Louie's - a
bar in a strip mall frequented by uniformed officers - that Democrats are
launching their drive to upend conventional wisdom.

     The crowd there erupted when Kerry started with a salute.

     "Yes, yes," they shouted moments later.

     "He's slicing them up," said Wanda Byrd, whose husband is a retired
naval officer. "Man, he is on fire, isn't he?" she asked her friends as the
bar's crowd of about 120 rose out of their seats, waved flags and shouted
approval.

     Census figures show that more than one-third of the residents in some
counties around Norfolk, which President Bush narrowly carried in 2000, are
veterans. Many more are active-duty military men and women.

     Audrey Weston, 47, the wife of a naval petty officer who has served in
Afghanistan and Iraq, predicted that Kerry would carry Virginia because so
many military families, like hers, are disillusioned with Bush.

     "It's almost like they've been in a tunnel and they've just been
awakened," she said.

     Starting in 1968, the Democrat presidential nominee has always lost to
the Republican in Virginia and neither major party has bothered to buy
television ads, mail glossy fliers, stage rallies or hold news conferences.
And as the candidates traveled across America, they usually skipped right
over the commonwealth.

     This year, though, Kerry strategists and leading Democrats in Virginia
are convinced they have a shot at the state's 13 electoral votes because of
dissatisfaction among veterans, lost jobs in rural areas and the changing
demographics of Northern Virginia.

     Kerry has been to the state four times since he clinched the nomination
in the primaries, and his advisers promise more visits. By contrast, Kerry's
advisers have said, Al Gore and Bush hardly visited the state in 2000, when
Bush won the state 52 percent to 44 percent.

     Republican leaders scoff at the notion that their electoral streak
might be coming to an end.

     Ken Hutcheson, state director for Bush's effort in Virginia, said he
does not see evidence of a shift from Republican domination in the
commonwealth. And he predicted that Kerry's attention to Virginia will fade
as it becomes clear that Bush is too far ahead.

     "I don't doubt for a minute they are trying to put it into play,"
Hutcheson said. "I don't believe a liberal, Massachusetts, flip-flopping
senator will persuade Virginia voters with Virginia values to break a trend
that we've been carrying since 1964."

     Hutcheson noted that Democrats offer no hard proof to support their
claims. There are no public polls to support their contention, in part
because - unlike some states targeted by Democrats - Virginia does not have
a competitive statewide race for U.S. Senate or governor that would prompt
public polls. The campaign declines to release results of its private
polling.

     Last night, a dozen Democrats huddled around a big-screen TV in the
basement of a home in Cloverdale, just north of Roanoke. The crowd groaned
when Kerry saluted. "He's playing this up, isn't he?" Mark Hanson, 48, said.

     But when Kerry made a remark about Vice President Cheney, several
people yelled, "All right!"

     Josh Avondoglio, 19, said: "I've never seen him like this. He seems
real animated." Still, several were skeptical about Kerry's chances to carry
their rural community.

     "Maybe he will take Virginia, but not Botetourt County," said Wesley
Crow, 63, of Roanoke. In 2000, the county voted for Bush over Gore 64
percent to 33 percent.

     At the CarPool in Arlington, meanwhile, the crowd was not an organized
partisan gathering. And though the speech was put on the restaurant's big
screen and the music was turned down, only a few paid attention.

     Jason Rizzo, 29, of Arlington County said he considers himself an
"extraordinary liberal." But last night, he had gone out to relax, and he
said he wasn't going to listen. "I'll read the transcript tomorrow," he
said.

     Kerry's senior advisers said Warner, who is popular in Virginia, has
re-energized Democratic voters and is giving credibility to Kerry's campaign
themes.

     "Because [Warner] is so highly regarded, his testimony matters," Kerry
pollster Mark Mellman said.

     Kerry's Virginia campaign director, Susan Swecker, said the campaign
"turned a few heads when Virginia was put on the list" of states that are
considered competitive enough to merit time and money.

     The message has been pushed at the convention as Virginia officials and
others traveled the halls of Boston's FleetCenter, met with editorial
boards, granted interviews on national television and spoke to delegates at
parties and receptions.

     John J. Sweeney, president of the national AFL-CIO, told a group of
Maryland reporters he believes labor's strength in Virginia will help Kerry
win the state.

     "We have a good labor movement in Virginia. We're doing the same kind
of work in Virginia as Maryland," Sweeney said.

     At the Sine Irish Pub in Arlington last night, about 40 people attended
a convention party. When Kerry came on the television screens, the Arlington
Young Democrats stopped flirting and networking and belted out hollers of
support.

     One supporter there, Jason Faberman, 28, predicted that Kerry's
selection of Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) as his running mate will help him win
in Virginia.

     "He can go to Roanoke or Norfolk and connect with those people" in the
southern part of the state, Faberman said.

     Warner and senior Kerry officials said the influx of immigrants in
Northern Virginia has created a diverse population, which Democrats hope is
much more likely to vote for a candidate from their party.

     The officials also said that the loss of jobs in the state's rural
areas provides an opening for Kerry. Layoffs in textile plants, furniture
manufacturers and the tobacco industry during the past four years have left
a trail of voters who are disaffected with Bush, they said.

     "There's been tremendous economic dislocation in the South," Mellman
said. "The bad economy has helped them to sour on Bush."

     Democratic campaign officials in Virginia said they believe their state
is winnable in part because of Kerry's decorated service in Vietnam, which
could appeal to military veterans, and the perception among some in the
military that Bush's policies in Iraq and Afghanistan are bad for the
country.

     Hutcheson said he believes the state's veterans will continue to
support Bush because of his conservative credentials. Virginia Republican
Party Chairman Kate Obenshain Griffin said she has no doubts of GOP success.

     "I am confident President Bush will carry his positive and optimistic
message to a great victory in Virginia," she said.

     But Kerry's campaign manager, Mary Beth Cahill, said the campaign
believes strongly that Virginia is "a possibility for us." And she said
similar arguments can be made for other southern states that President Bush
won in 2000. She cited North Carolina, Florida, Louisiana and Arkansas as
Democratic targets.

     "The math is very different than it was in the year 2000," Cahill said
in a recent interview with editors and reporters.

  

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